Now that the gunpowder fumes have cleared from the voting booths and the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) has emerged as the clear winner, it is time to take stock: who will tie the knot with whom? “It hasn’t gotten any easier,” concludes political reporter Tessel Linders. “That will be quite a puzzle.”
First a caveat before we go deeper into the matter: because the election results are not yet final, we assume provisional results.
Big entrance for BBB
Newcomer BBB is the largest from scratch with 11 seats, followed by:
- 9 seats: VVD (-1)
- 5 seats: GroenLinks (-)
- 4 seats: CDA (-4), SP (-1), D66 (-1), PVV (-) and PvdA (+1)
“What no one had taken into account is that the VVD would no longer be the largest,” says Linders. “We knew that BBB would make a big entrance, but this big? No, no one expected that.”
Also striking is the halving of the CDA. And that PVV does not benefit from the blow that Forum for Democracy received.
Push for coalition
The new election results represent a major change for the current coalition. It currently consists of the parties VVD, CDA, D66, GroenLinks and PvdA. Together they accounted for 31 of the 55 seats. But that vast majority has fallen since yesterday. They now only get 22 seats.
That is why it is already certain that a different wind will blow in the Brabant provincial house, says reporter Linders. “Even if the VVD only loses one seat, it is a tough result for that party. Because BBB is the largest, it means that they are taking the lead in forming a new board.”
How manageable is Brabant?
That may seem easy at first glance, with no fewer than 11 seats. Linders: “You could say: take BBB and VVD. You add that up with CDA, JA21 and Local Brabant: then you are there, albeit very narrowly.”
But appearances are deceiving. “The problem is that parties have to choose a direction. The right, for example, is quite adamant about adapting stables to make them low-emission.” That is still an important part of the Brabant approach to reduce nitrogen emissions. That deadline is still on January 1, 2024. Linders: “That’s what they want not.”
A breaking point
BBB thus takes the lead in forming a new coalition. And so this Thursday morning we put a nitrogen question to foreman John Frenken: what should be done with those barn adjustments? “That is non-negotiable. As far as we are concerned, those barn adjustments are off the table. That is a breaking point,” says Frenken.
According to political reporter Linders, these are harsh words. “If those barn adjustments are actually not negotiable, it will have serious consequences. Brabant is now locked. Nitrogen space must first be released before nature permits are issued again. Reducing nitrogen emissions therefore seems vitally important. The barn adjustments are also necessary for this,” says Linders. “Whether the VVD agrees with that, I don’t know.”
Hand overplay
The fact that BBB takes such a hard line on this point could possibly get in the way of the party, says Linders. “BBB can hardly form a coalition without VVD. But the VVD can do without BBB, for example by collaborating with left-wing parties. So if BBB and VVD cannot agree on nitrogen, the VVD can still take the initiative. ” So there is a danger lurking: “The BBB can also overplay the hand with this.”
Other coalitions with a majority are at first sight unfeasible. BBB is certainly in the field of nitrogen diametrically opposed to GroenLinks, PvdA and D66.
Linders’ conclusion: “So it will probably take a long time.”
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