So big and murky is the gaping Mark Rutte-shaped hole in Dutch politics that every ambitious politician can see himself in it. Because who knows what kind of prime minister the Dutch voter is waiting for, after thirteen years of Rutte in power? A politician with administrative experience or the contrary – an outsider who breaks open the system?
A bit of both, seems to be the thought at BBB, which presented former CDA member Mona Keijzer as prime ministerial candidate on Friday. Scion of a center party and rebel on the right flank. Secretary of State in Rutte III and dismissed by Rutte from that cabinet because of her criticism of the corona admission ticket. “She knows the tricks of the trade,” party leader Caroline van der Plas summarized the resume of her dream prime minister on Friday.
The fact that BBB nominates a prime ministerial candidate at all says something about the bravado with which all parties are entering the upcoming election campaign. In the poll published last week by I&O Research, the party is polling thirteen seats. But after Rutte’s announced departure, anything is possible, that is the prevailing feeling among many parties.
dividing line
“This looks like a 2002-like moment to me,” says Sarah de Lange, professor of political pluralism at the University of Amsterdam. “After very long periods with one prime minister, a major electoral shift often follows.” This does not necessarily mean that a populist challenger to the system, such as Pim Fortuyn’s LPF at the time, will become the biggest. However, the scope for political shifts is suddenly enormous.
That goes further than Rutte, continues De Lange. Over the past twenty years, Dutch politics has had clear relations, she outlines. In it, with two short interruptions (from 2002 to 2003 with the LPF, and from 2010 to 2012 with Geert Wilders’ PVV), the board was formed and supported by a group of parties to the left and right of the centre.
Beyond that, a fluctuating radical right wing emerged that performed well in elections, but rarely joined coalitions and interim deals. “For example, it was clear that Wilders would never be in government again as long as Rutte was in power,” said De Lange. “That had major consequences, because due to the size of the PVV, the number of coalitions that were possible was much smaller.”
That changes. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz does not want to exclude the PVV and the landscape has now broadened considerably. In recent years, a dividing line has emerged between the traditional left and right blocs and a new bloc on the radical right, with voters rarely returning to the old blocs. But the dividing line is no longer so sharp.
Both BBB and New Social Contract, the party with which Pieter Omtzigt is throwing himself into the election battle, can count on the interest of voters who have moved to PVV, FVD and JA21 in recent years. At the same time, they also appeal to the rank and file of the middle parties: that is where their great voter potential lies.
Peter Kanne, political researcher at I&O Research, is therefore surprised about the list of names that BBB presented as new acquisitions on Friday: not only Mona Keijzer, but also the sitting Members of Parliament Nicki Pouw-Verweij (JA21), Derk Jan Eppink (JA21) and Lilian Helder (PVV) get a place on the candidate list of BBB.
“It is a daring choice by Van der Plas,” says Kanne. “She has so far seemed like a moderate version of her populist predecessors. You saw that recently, for example, when she took a stand against the ‘scare-mongering’ in the asylum debate. With these names she seems to be making a move to the radical right again.”
Kanne calls the attracting of Keijzer striking for another reason. “Her profile is that of a sturdy lady who dares to stand up against the incumbent, which Rutte dared to defy. But at the same time she did so on a subject – corona policy – where she expressed a minority point of view. A majority did support that corona pass.”
issue ownership
Not surprisingly, BBB is sharpening the profile. Van der Plas responded last month with praise to Pieter Omtzigt’s announcement that he is participating in the elections, but it was difficult for her to explain in interviews why voters should still vote for her party if Omtzigt was also an option. “It’s hard for me to say,” she said. “I am a very pleasant woman, that is always nice.”
With this, Van der Plas pointed out an important factor now that many voters are adrift: the personality of the party leaders, especially now that the Torentje is vacant. The question then is: which personality do voters want to reward?
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Kanne sees a great need for a ‘connector’ in his research, and suspects that BBB will not directly benefit from this with Keijzer. “At Omtzigt you clearly see an attempt to connect and to stand above the parties, just like Frans Timmermans is trying to do for GroenLinks-PvdA. Omtzigt also refers to good ideas that he sees in other parties, from SP to BBB. I don’t see Keijzer doing that any time soon.” There is something else that Timmermans and Omtzigt have in common. Both leaders want to draw attention to social security. Omtzigt added “security of existence and the people at the bottom”. News hour even as a top priority.
Politicians hope that campaigns will address the issues voters associate with their party. But what is the dominant theme can shift quickly. Early in the summer it was migration, but Kanne sees that shifting. “Attention is shifting to socio-economic issues: poverty alleviation, housing market, health care. This is not good news for many parties on the right wing.”
Competitive battle
The VVD already seemed to take an advance on such a campaign on Friday. The election program is full of strict plans for migration policy, but Yesilgöz largely devoted the presentation to ‘hard-working Dutch people’ who have difficulty making ends meet. In the program, the VVD also expressly refers to regional disadvantages and inequality, a theme that the BBB took up in the spring.
Whereas the competition on the right used to often be between parties who overtook each other on migration, profiles are now also being sought on economic subjects. “The socially conservative, economically left-wing voter, who is always said to have little to choose from, is being served particularly well in these elections,” says De Lange.
The results of that competition are already being felt. Because Pouw-Verweij, Eppink and Helder are switching immediately, BBB will increase from one to four seats in parliament. JA21 frontman Joost Eerdmans will soon be alone in the Chamber. They are the whimsical expressions of a political landscape in which not only voters, but also politicians migrate fleetingly.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on September 2, 2023.