One of the key maps of the election night of the May 28 will be the one that colors the silhouette of the 12 autonomous communities who renew their parliaments. The balance of fiefdoms revalidated or conquered will be one of the main indicators of which party has come out better off the appointment with the polls. The PSOE currently governs in 10 of those 12 autonomies and the PP, only in Madrid and Murcia. At the beginning of the electoral campaign, the regional surveys reflect a very open panorama in the majority of territories, the popular being Isabel Diaz Ayuso and the socialist Emiliano Garcia-Page the only candidates with options to reach an absolute majority, but neither are they guaranteed.
The CIS macro-sound suggests that the PP could beat the PSOE in Aragon, The Rioja, Cantabria and in the closest feud of all, the Valencian Community. But, in all four cases, the Socialists could retain power through pacts. In fact, both the PSOE and the popular ones will need complex alliances, or directly devilish ones, to govern. The side on which the balance will tip will depend, in some cases, on the presence of United We Canof the strength that it has vox or the support of regionalist formations.
In Aragon, PSOE and PP once again dispute the victory in the autonomic ones without guarantees of a sufficient majority to be able to govern. The current president, the socialist Javier Lambanputs the regional government at stake, sustained during these last four years in a pact with Can, Aragonese Chunta and Aragonese Party. The PP has promoted the mayor of Zaragoza, Jorge Azcon, to try to recover the power it lost in 2015. And as happened in 2019, this time Podemos and IU are running separately in the elections. The CIS leaves everything open: the PP would win the elections to the PSOE, but Lambán could overcome the right by adding Podemos, CHA, IU and Aragon exists, which would have the key to tip the balance. On the right hand side, the only unknown is the input of the PAR, which moves on the wire.
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In Asturias, the PSOE and PP maintain a somewhat uneven pulse in the autonomic ones to take over the Government of the Principality. The current president, the socialist Adrian Barboncould count on his current partners of United We Can and the coalition formed by IU and Más País (Call for Asturies). In 2019, Unidas Podemos and IU also attended the elections separately. The PP has opted for a signing, Diego Cangas, to try to regain power in a community that has not governed for 24 years. In this context, the polls predict little change in the majorities in the General Meeting of the Principalitywhich allows us to anticipate a scenario marked by continuity in the regional Executive.
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In Balearics, PSOE and PP maintain a very close fight in the autonomic ones and the balance of the future Executive will be in the hands of the minorities in a very fragmented scene. The current president, the socialist Francina Armengolhas governed for the last four years in coalition with United We Can and Month per Majorca, an alliance that needed the support of three other parliamentary groups to reach the autonomous government. In fact, the current majority of the left is supported by a single seat, so the role played by the regionalist forces could be decisive if the PP has options to forge an alternative pact, although for this he would have to first look for vox. According to the CIS, Armengol will need to add the nationalists of Més and Unidas Podemos compared to the sum of PP and Vox.
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In Canary Islands, PSOE and PP fight to obtain a majority in the autonomic ones that allows them to maintain or to reach the regional Executive by means of agreements that could implicate to several political forces. The current president, the socialist Angel Victor Torreshas governed for the last four years with the support of new canaries, United We Can and the Gomera Socialist Group. A majority that was supported by a single seat and that left in opposition, for the first time since 1993, Canarian Coalitionin addition to PP. Precisely, these last two formations are now fighting for the second position to have options to forge an alternative majority. The CIS gives victory to the PSOE and the majority to the left bloc.
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In Cantabriathe Regionalist Party (PRC) of the current regional president, Miguel Angel Revilla, and the PP are fighting not only for electoral victory, but also for being able to articulate a majority that allows them to maintain or reach the regional Executive through pacts. In the last four years, Revilla has governed in coalition with the PSOE, who has been his ally during the four legislatures in which he has been president. However the PRC He also held two governments of the PPbetween 1995 and 2003, and precisely Revilla’s votes are what, according to the CIS, the Socialists and Popularists will need if they win 28-M.
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In Castilla la Mancha, the scarce political fragmentation means that the struggle of 28-M is resolved between the sum of the PSOE and Unidas Podemos and the sum of the PP and Vox. The purples were left without representation four years ago, after a legislature in which their votes were key to returning the left to power in an autonomous community that only ceased to govern from 2011 to 2015, when he presided over it Maria Dolores de Cospedal. If Unidas Podemos does not recover, the socialist Emiliano Garcia-Page The presidency that he has held since 2015 will be played alone. The CIS reinforces him with a vote estimate above 47%.
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The average of all the surveys on the regional elections published since September is close to the PP of Isabel Diaz Ayuso a little more to an absolute majority and you would get 66 seats, one more than two years ago. The current tie between Más Madrid and PSOE would be broken in favor of the former, although both would rise compared to 2021. Más Madrid would achieve 26 deputies and the PSOE, 25. For its part, Vox would get 12 parliamentariansone less than now, and United We Can take the worst part and stay with 7 representatives, three less than today. With these results, Ayuso could reissue the regional government, but he would not be able to avoid once again being in the hands of Vox.
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In the closest regional battle on the map, the average of all the polls published since September leaves the left and right blocks separated by just one seat. The PP would get 35 parliamentarians (16 more than in 2019) and the PSPV, 29 (two more than four years ago) Vox and Compromís maintain their particular fight for the bronze medal: Compromís would achieve 15 representatives (two less) and Vox, 14 (four more). Unides Podem would stay with 5 seats (three less). With these results, the left could not reissue the Executive for just one seat, because the sum of PP and Vox would reach 50 deputiesthe absolute majority threshold.
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In Estremadurathe current president, the socialist Guillermo Fernandez Varadefends the only absolute majority of the PSOE on the regional political map, while the PP, with Maria Guardiola As a candidate, she aspires to regain power in a community that only ruled for four years (from 2011 to 2015). the strength they have United We Can and voxGiven the foreseeable disappearance of citizens, it can be decisive to incline the governability in case Vara loses the absolute majority. In this context, the polls predict that the PSOE could need United We Can to maintain the majority in the Assembly of ExtremaduraTherefore, both the option of reissuing the current Executive and the possibility of a turn to the right remain open.
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In Murcia, the PP launches for what would be its eighth consecutive regional government in some regional elections, although in the last ones the most voted party was the PSOE. Since 1995 the popular have governed in a region that was about to turn around in 2021, when the Socialists and Ciudadanos agreed to a motion of no confidence against the current president, Fernando Lopez Miras, which ended up failing but shook the entire national political chessboard. To retain power, the PP relied on several defecting deputies from Ciudadanos and Vox. In this context, the polls predict that the PP would continue to need the extreme right to maintain the majority in the Regional Assembly of Murciabut it would close the door to any option for an alternative left-wing Executive.
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In Navarre, the fragmentation of parliament could be accentuated and force the parties to forge new pacts with several parties. If in 2019 the right-wings presented themselves united in the coalition Navarre Sum, now they do it divided between UPN, PP and Vox. The polls indicate that UPN would win the elections, but the conservative bloc could not prevent the current president, the socialist Maria Chivitereissue its alliance with geroa bai and With you Navarre (the coalition of Podemos, IU, Batzarre, Alianza Verde and Equo). Nevertheless, EH Bildu It would be essential for the investiture again.
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In The Riojacurrently governed by the socialist shell andreu with the support of Unidas Podemos, the polls show a very close outlook to achieve the 17 seats of an absolute majority. The PP, which presents as a candidate for Gonzalo Capellan, he could win votes by picking up the wreck of Ciudadanos, but he would need the support of Vox. The possible attrition of the Socialists would make them depend on the coalition again we can-UI and even of Riojan Party. Four years ago, the balance tipped to the left by a single seat and this time history could repeat itself.