Yes ok in politics everything tends to be cyclical, it seems clear that the absolute majorities of other times have ended and that, whoever wins, will have to juggle parliamentary arithmetic in order to govern. Until now, the blocks were quite clear: PP, Vox and Ciudadanos, on the one hand; and PSOE, Podemos and nationalist left on the other. But with the disappearance of Ciudadanos and the collapse of Podemosthe global map has suffered a shock that can slightly modify the trend.
Or put another way, it is possible that there are no absolute majorities, but that the relative ones expand considerably. Something that would make alliances difficult, but would eventually facilitate the great State pact that the European Commission wants – the Spanish debt is unmatchable – and which many of the Spanish de facto powers dream of. State Pact, however, which would always go through the political disappearance of Pedro Sánchezwhich if he does not win is highly probable.
Futures aside, the fact is that the alliances on both sides have been weakening. In the case of Vox, because it seems that the useful vote for the PP is taking shape. And the negative impact that the policies announced by Vox have in the autonomies, in the most liberal conservative sectors, should not be less. But where things have become very complicated is in the PSOE alliance chart, whose solidity is cracking. First, because both Bildu and ERC will electorally pay the price of having facilitated the Government of Sánchez without having achieved anything substantial.
All the ‘trackings’ of the matches place the two formations in a falling position, although it is ERC who will suffer the most significant wear. With a not minor addition, at least within the independence movement: the conviction that the only relevant success, the disappearance of the crime of sedition –which was unsustainable for Europe–, has been a socialist move in order to facilitate the arrest of ‘president’ Puigdemont. That is to say, not even in this case the ERC alliances would have been good for the independence movement. With Junts totally against agreeing to the investiture of Sánchez, and with ERC in decline, it is evident that this flank is now weaker than four years agoto support a hypothetical Government of Pedro Sánchez.
Apostille to the older brother
However, where the most important uproar has occurred, the outcome of which is uncertain at this point, is in the world of the alternative left, with the de facto disappearance of Podemos and the appearance of Sumar. It is evident that with Yolanda Diaz a new leadership has been born, but is it a leadership for the left of the PSOE, or is it a renewal of the PSOE itself? And the question is pertinent because Sumar has appeared on the political scene as a true PSOE white label, with no personality of its own beyond adding to the account of his older brother.
Unlike Podemos, which was born from 15M and presented a clearly differentiated ideological profile, with a very disruptive proposal for a change in the political paradigm, Sumar belongs to the dynamics of the regime of 78does not want to change anything substantial and He has no intention of making any microrevolution if he reaches the Government. It is true that the expectations of Can have been truncated, as much by the intrinsic difficulties, as by the ferocious campaigns that it has suffered and, above all, by its own incompetence when it comes to governing, but there can be no doubt of its will to regenerate politics.
an appendage
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Adding is nothing of all this; on the contrary, It is a clear rectification of what Podemos meant, and the most evident proof is the change of position on the issue of the Catalan conflict, where it has unambiguously been against. The question is whether the private label strategy is useful or harmful for Pedro Sánchez, and the answer is not clear.
It is evident that It’s going very well for him to disappear. We can, whom he has always considered a nightmare. But voting expectations can also migrate, because if Sumar is the same as the PSOE – and at this point it is difficult to differentiate – what is the use of voting for them, when the intention of voting is to stop the right? Podemos was an addition to the PSOE and it made sense; add is an appendix. The question is this: in dangerous situations, who risks voting for the complement, if you can vote for the largest piece?