Wipe Russia off the map. That was the urgent thing in one sentence request from Ukraine to international internet organizations. But it’s not that easy in the online world. The Internet is an organically grown set of networks over which not one country is in charge, not a cafe with a bouncer. In addition, human rights experts warn, it is not a good idea for millions of people from the World Wide Web to close.
The “military operation in Ukraine,” as it is euphemistically termed in Russia, and subsequent Western sanctions, are further dividing Russia and the West online. Western tech companies massively announced their departure from Russia, (partially) ceased their services and put investments on hold. At the same time, Russia is also trying to isolate itself on the World Wide Web. What buttons are Russia and the West pressing to cut their mutual connection?
Button 1: The West Isolates Russia
Mychailo Fyodorov (31), the young Ukrainian minister of Digital Transformation, called at the end of February to ban all of Russia from internet access. “Help us thus save the lives of our people.”
Ukraine asked ICANN, the organization responsible for managing country domains (such as .nl in Dutch internet addresses), to remove Russian country domains such as .ru and .su. Russian websites would then become unreachable, just like Russian e-mail addresses. Such an online sanction would be acutely felt by Russia.
Fyodorov also turned to RIPE NCC, the Amsterdam-based organization that issues internet addresses for Europe and the Middle East. That would have to take all Russian IP addresses, so that all Russian servers, computers and smartphones are cut off from the rest of the internet in one fell swoop.
Both organizations refused, because such a political intervention would jeopardize their neutral position. Fyodorov’s request is also difficult to implement: it requires the cooperation of thirteen independent administrators of the Internet’s main signposts.
Shutting down the whole of Russia, the internet community does not want to do that. However, targeted sanctions are possible. A club of internet experts called for a new impartial referee this week that can cut off network routes, with a technique that is now also used to defuse cyber attacks. According to researcher Niels ten Oever, one of the initiators, such a new governing body for internet sanctions could be operational within a month.
Many major Russian telecom companies are connected to the global internet via American providers Cogent and Lumen. Both Cogent and Lumen announced the divestment of major Russian customers, although previously disconnected connections appeared to have been restored on Friday.
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Erik Bais, CEO of the Dutch internet provider A2B Internet, also does not think that Russia would go completely offline if providers exclude Russian customers: “The Internet is made in such a way that we can all connect separate islands, and routers mutually find out what is the shortest path between them. is. If that is not directly to Europe from Russia, it will go through the Middle East or through China.” As a user, you will notice that: “If that route is a goat path that goes through Moldova, you will experience a lot of delay. Traffic doesn’t arrive, you can’t download videos anymore, big emails take days because it just doesn’t get through.”
Button 2: Russia isolates itself
Russia could decide to (partially) disconnect itself from the global internet. For years we have been working on our own ‘sovereign’ internet. In 2019, the State Duma passed a series of laws that would allow Russia to shut down its own internet from the World Wide Web in the event of external or internal ‘threats’. Due to its vague formulation, the law is very widely applicable. “There is talk of a threat, but the law does not specify the circumstances under which closure can be effected,” Russian internet expert Andrei Soldatov said earlier. NRC†
With decoupling, Russia can try to protect the economy against ‘hostile’ actions from abroad – such as the closure of payment systems. Such a national ‘intranet’ also gives authorities the ability to monitor citizens’ online behavior and take Russian regions offline during social protests.
Russian authorities are instructing companies to move their websites to Russian servers. That fuels rumors of further disconnection. But experts are skeptical. According to Erik Bais, Russia could “probably last for a few hours”. After that, crucial functionality is lost.
Russia could also simply order all providers in the country to disconnect their networks. Then there will be no internet traffic at all within Russia. Such complete blackouts sometimes occur, such as during protests in Iran or Myanmar, but they cannot be sustained for long: the economic damage is enormous.
Button 3: Russia will no longer receive hardware
The sanctions also affect Russian telecom companies. Ericsson and Nokia have stopped supplying mobile infrastructure to Russian operators such as MTS, MegaFon and Amsterdam-based Veon. Russian cell towers contain 40 to 60 percent equipment from Nokia or Ericsson. In the absence of domestic alternatives, Russian telecom providers rely on technology from elsewhere. The main candidate is the Chinese Huawei, which is not yet participating in the sanctions.
But quickly replacing technology is not one of them. A forced switch is estimated to cost the Russian telecom sector billions of dollars. Semiconductor suppliers are also banning Russia. Chip manufacturers AMD and Intel are no longer allowed to supply electronics. Russia designs own chips and computer parts, but remains dependent on chip factories abroad, such as TSMC and Samsung. They have already stopped their deliveries.
This creates opportunities for Chinese chip suppliers in the longer term. However, those companies cannot produce the most advanced chips – China is probably also waiting for sanctions from US customers.
Button 4: The West disrupts payment systems
The closure of Russia of the international payment systems Visa and Mastercard means that Russian payment cards no longer work abroad, and foreign ones no longer work in Russia. Nevertheless, this measure leads to malfunctions of the payment systems rather than to a total payment blackout. In addition, Russians can continue to use their Visa and Mastercard cards for domestic transactions until their card expires. In addition, citizens massively use the payment system Mir of the Russian central bank, and the Chinese UnionPay.
The departure of Google Pay, Apple Pay and PayPal caused queues in the Moscow metro because people could no longer pay with their phones. Blocked payment systems also cause headaches for popular online sales platforms such as Yandex Market and Wildberries. Nevertheless, sales continue, and Western luxury brands are also widely available online. Russian tech sites also share plenty of tips with which consumers can circumvent payment restrictions.
Button 5: The West is throttling the software
Many tech companies have partially banned Russia. Microsoft stopped selling products from Office to the video game Minecraft. The Kremlin’s response: A new law should allow Russian companies to also use expired software licenses from suppliers that are withdrawing on the basis of economic sanctions. It is a license to continue to use software from Microsoft, Oracle or Cisco illegally.
The US tech companies have not yet gone so far as to discontinue their actual services in Russia – Office and Outlook just work as usual in Russia.
Such an intervention is possible: the US government banned Google in 2020 from providing software to the Chinese Huawei. Another option is a stop on updates – that makes Russian systems more vulnerable to hacking attacks.
A lot of technical talent is now trying to leave Russia. This brain drain is hampering the pace at which Russia can develop its own alternatives to Western software and online services.
Button 6: Censorship from both sides
While Western countries blocked Russian state channels like RT and Sputnik for spreading disinformation, Russia stepped up censorship measures internally. Last week, Putin signed a law that imposes severe penalties on civilians for “discrediting the Russian military.” To protect users in Russia, popular video service TikTok disabled features to prevent them from uploading or live streaming new videos.
In addition, Russia blocked hundreds of independent news sites, Twitter and Facebook, and police officers checked citizens’ phones for prohibited content during demonstrations in Moscow.
The strict measures led to a run on VPN services, with which IP addresses are masked and blocks can be circumvented. Popular western VPN services were launched in Russia in one week downloaded over 1.3 million times† It is difficult that Russian government sites and service providers such as Aeroflot and the Russian Railways are not accessible via VPN.
No matter how many buttons on either side are pressed, the West and Russia are too interconnected to pull the plug completely. In addition, the desire to isolate Putin now mainly affects the Russian population, activists warn.
“Access to the internet is vital for Russians to receive objective information and make the right decisions,” wrote Roskomsvoboda, an organization that works for a free internet. “The massive shutdown of Russian users by American and European tech companies will not improve the situation in Ukraine, but will worsen the human rights situation in Russia.”
ICANN President Göran Marby agreed: “Only through unimpeded access to the internet can citizens receive reliable information and different opinions.”