Aragonès and ERC have reasons for satisfaction. The ‘president’ has just been seen in Brussels with two European commissioners, Justice, Didier Reynders and the Industry, Tierry Breton. After seven years in which no one in Brussels received anyone from the Generalitat, the Catalan government is once again an interlocutor. Can anyone believe that Catalonia would do moderately well by continuing to be banned in Europe?
In addition, ERC has not submitted an amendment to the entire Madrid budget, which indicates that it believes it is possible that some cases for the ‘procés’, in court for five years, will not end with prison sentences. It is a complex matter, but the truth is that the partial pardons those condemned by the Supreme have lowered the political tension in Catalonia.
The Catalonia of 2022 is much less polarized than that of 2017, but this lesser polarization – independence is no longer the monotheme – has caused the first serious rupture between the two main pro-independence forces (ERC and JxCat). We don’t know if it is the end of the ‘procés’, but today there is a serious Catalan political crisis, not against Spain, but because the independentistas are very divided.
But the shadow of the ‘procés’ is long. And ERC is not satisfied but concerned. Aragonès was invested with the vote of 74 deputies. 33 from ERC, 32 from JxCat and 9 from the CUP, when the absolute majority is 68. The CUP are no longer in that majority and now the break with JxCat has left Aragonès naked, with only 33 seats. Junts demands that Aragonès present a motion of confidence and the ‘president’ will not do so because it is his power and he would lose it.
The alternative would be for some opposition to present a motion of censure that could not prosper because this motion in Catalonia (and in Spain) It must be “constructive.” With a candidate for ‘president’. Impossible to get out.
Aragonès could call elections, but has already said that he will not. He can therefore continue to govern with only 33 seats, but it will be a continuous ‘via crucis’ (this week a law has already been overthrown). Also, there are the budgets. ERC said that without JxCat the Government would be more serious and coherent, but a government that extends budgets -with an inflation of 9% and in an uncertain world- it is difficult to be considered responsible.
Therein lies the key. The objective interest of the ‘president’ is to have budgets. And it wouldn’t be difficult. Salvador Illa’s PSC he has already offered because he believes that in this time of crisis having budgets is essential. ERC and PSC each have 33 seats. They are 66, and with the help of the 8 of commons by Jéssica Albiach they would have a majority for the budgets and -perhaps- to, negotiating a lot, govern for a more or less long time.
But one thing is the Government and another the party. For ERC, the priority seems to be to win the municipal matches against the PSC and JxCat with better results than in 2019. And send later in the Catalan councils. And Junqueras fears that a pact with the PSC in Catalonia – another thing is with the PSOE in Madrid – could harm her electorally. That she not only hinders the transit to ERC of JxCat voters, but that Republican voters are tempted by JxCat who would accuse her of being a traitor for the pacts with the socialists. Junqueras himself repeats that the PSC should not be in the Catalan pacts because he supported Rajoy’s 155 and “the repression & rdquor ;. How to deal with the invectives of Junts who would say that those who sleep on the same mattress -the budgets- are of the same condition?
In this logic, any relevant pact with the PSC in Parliament would be convenient until after the municipal ones. Then, Will Aragonès have to put up with a permanent parliamentary ‘way of the cross’ until after May? I believe that neither Junqueras nor Aragonès yet know how they will arbitrate interests that seem to be opposed.
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