the executive of Together for Catalonia (JxCat) on Thursday he decided in Altafulla to create a reduced secretariat. He confirmed so Puigdemont will be the one who makes the final decision on the investiture. And the one from Waterloo assured that there have not yet been negotiations but dialogue and that the investiture will be negotiated depending on its result.
A non-Catalan former socialist deputy calls me: “But what is Junts really and what will it do?” It is, simplifying, a strange amalgamation of politicians from the old CDC (turullgeneral secretary, and others less defined as Xavier Trias) with maximalist independentistas united by fury against Madrid… and against ERC. But the one who makes the decisions -when he wants- is Puigdemont, who has supported the irreducible so that the ‘realists’ could not negotiate without his permission.
What will Puigdemont say on Tuesday? He will expose a position of maximums to open negotiations after September 11 (to avoid clashes with the radical ANC), on September 19 (Sánchez will have to portray himself on the use of Catalan in the European Parliament), and the foreseeable failure of Feijóo’s investiture.
Then Sánchez and Puigdemont will be face to face with the more or less comfortable company and in this order of bildu (he has already said yes), Add (need to mark profile), the GNP and the restless CKD. Puigdemont has not had a success (it has gone from 8 to 7 deputies), but ERC has lost 6 (from 13 to 7) and the CUP the 2 it had. Now the independence movement has 14 seats compared to 23 in the last legislature when Catalonia elects 48. And the PSC has 19, more than JxCat and ERC combined.
The logical and sensible thing would be for there to be an investiture agreement before November 17, but in politics emotions weigh heavily and it cannot be ruled out that in the end the Junts leader is inclined to repeat elections
But Puigdemont has won the lottery because his 7 deputies are essential (albeit with one abstention) so that Sánchez, with the 172 of the previous Frankenstein, is invested. A carambola has made Puigdemont the king of the mambo, unless his demands make Sánchez resign himself to the electoral repetition. What will Puigdemont do in the end? No one can guarantee it and until November 17 (deadline) there is a lot left. But I think his recent history can help place him.
1. Puigdemont is a radical but also a calculating politician. In 2017 he wanted to call elections (he knew that the unilateral declaration would fail), but he did not do so for fear of losing the elections to an ERC that would accuse him of being a coward. And he has paid for it.
2. After the 2021 Catalan elections I knew they had to vote for the investiture of Aragonès (ERC had won), but he was reluctant to enter the Government. Was Jordi Sanchez, then general secretary of Junts, the one who agreed.
3. Puigdemont consented, but progressively concluded that they should leave the Government, despite losing positions and money, in order to mark a policy different from that of ERC. First Jordi Sànchez was eliminated and then Albert Batet, the parliamentary spokesman, clashed with Aragonès. ERC fell for the provocation and threw them out at the pleasure of the Government. But perhaps he did not measure all the consequences.
4. The Trias operation (a moderate) was designed by Puigdemont to have the most votes possible (even from the anti-Colau right) and stay ahead of ERC in the Barcelona municipal elections. He did it (11 councilors against 5) and if Trias is not mayor it is only because Collboni was smarter, stubborn… and he was lucky.
5. But the objective, to beat ERC to then be first in the legislatures and that Sánchez should negotiate with Waterloo (and less with ERC) advanced.
6. In the end JxCat and ERC have tied 7 deputies, but ERC has lost more than JxCat and the carambola has turned Puigdemont (his 7 deputies are necessary) into the king of the mambo.
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7. Puigdemont will play hard and his strength is that he can say ‘no’. The logical and sensible thing would be for him to set harsh conditions – that Sánchez could swallow – and thus try to boss around Catalonia (despite the fact that the PSC has more deputies in the Catalan and Spanish Parliament) and in the capital itself. But in politics, emotions and other things weigh heavily and Puigdemont may end up inclining to repeat elections for three reasons: not to break with the most radical pro-independence base, thus managing to defeat Junqueras in the internal war and attracting the European and international focus, putting Spain in a more delicate position.
Perhaps today not even he himself knows his final decision.