The path to the inauguration is beginning to clear up, but it seems to be at a slow pace. The King has activated the process by indicating as a candidate for Alberto Núñez Feijóo after verifying that neither the leader of the PP nor the president of the Government, Pedro SanchezRight now they had enough votes to be elected. The other unknown of the day has not been cleared up. The date of the full investiture is still up in the air, although everything indicates that nobody is in a hurry.
These are the 5 keys to the most imminent devilish political calendar.
Why has the King chosen Feijóo?
Article 99 of the Constitution authorizes the King to propose to the investiture candidate “prior consultation with the representatives designated by the political groups with parliamentary representation, and through the president of the Congress”. On this occasion, the decision had its substance because the candidate with the most options to carry out the investiture, Sánchez, is not the winner of the elections. As Feijóo has run for office and Sánchez does not have his support tied up either, the head of state, in his role as arbitrator, has chosen to choose the leader of the PP on the grounds that he is the candidate with the most votes at the polls.
The King’s House has made his motives clear in a release: “In all general elections, the candidate of the political group that has obtained the highest number of seats has been the first to be proposed. This practice has become over the years in a habit. In the consultation procedure, to date, the existence of a sufficient majority for the investiture that, in his case, would cause this custom to decline”. If the leader of the PP fails in his investiture, as is foreseeable, then the King would have arguments to propose Sánchez, as he did in 2016 when Mariano Rajoy He rejected Felipe VI’s offer to try to be invested because he did not have enough votes.
When could the investiture be?
The power to set a date for the full investiture is exclusive to Armengol, according to article 170 of the regulations of Congress. The president has assured that she wants to agree on the date of the plenary session with Feijóo, and he has implied that she is in no rush because she needs time to tie the knots four seats that separate him from the absolute majority. An objective that, except for capital surprise, is practically impossible. The date of the first ballot is key to clearing the possible electoral calendar because that day the two month countdown to invest president and avoid new elections.
The electoral law establishes that in case of repetition of the elections, 47 days must elapse between the call and the celebration, which means that fixing that first plenary session in September carries the risk of facing an election in the middle of Christmas. But if the first failed investiture is voted on August 30tha hypothetical repetition of elections would fall on Sunday December 17, avoiding the Christmas dates. In fact, one of the scenarios being handled was to call a plenary meeting next week, even if it was for a failed vote. However, Feijóo has publicly requested that he be given time to negotiate and get more support.
When could it be an electoral repeat?
If next week there is no full investiture and Christmas is intended to be drawn, the call for the first vote should be delayed at least one month, until the end of September or the beginning of October, to prevent the electoral campaign week or the same appointment with the polls from falling before January 6, Three Kings Day. For example, if the clock is activated the first week of September, the election could be on December 24, Christmas Eve. If it starts counting the second week of September, the elections would play in New Years Eve. And if the countdown starts in the third week of September, then we would have to vote in Kings. In order for the electoral process to completely avoid the holidays, the first investiture vote should not take place before September 27.
What does Feijóo win and what does he lose?
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By being designated a candidate for the investiture, Feijóo knows that he will have to submit to the opinion of Congress and, therefore, he will have an opportunity to present his alternative program to that of Sánchez and his partners. In the best of cases for the PP, in plenary he will be able to show the support of 172 deputies, only four of the absolute majority. However, that plenary session will probably end in a failed vote, which will leave the way clear for the current president of the Government to try to be re-elected. The fact that the investiture clock is still stopped, and may not be activated for several weeks, gives Feijóo more room to seek support and, for example, put pressure on the PSOE and the PNV for them to help you. But the positions seem quite set in stone after the majority exhibited in the constitution of congress, and the photo of Vox supporting Feijóo as president can reinforce the complicity between the PSOE partners. In addition, as long as the terms do not run, Sánchez also has more time to negotiate, so the scenario of a electoral repetition that would give the PP hope of obtaining a better result would recede on the horizon.
What does Sánchez win and what does he lose?
Following the success achieved in voting for the Congress table, the President of the Government has won another set from Feijóo because now he will have more time to articulate the very complex majority that leads to his investiture. More time to overcome multiple pitfalls that will be found in the negotiation, but also more time for the six parties that he has to convince to make the price of his support more expensive. Or new obstacles arise. For example, during the month of September it will have to be clarified if Armengol can fulfill his promise to allow the use of the co-official languages in Congress, and on the 19th it will be known what future awaits Spain’s request that Catalan, Basque and Galician be official in the EU. There are many doubts that both commitments can materialize in the short term, with the possible ensuing anger of ERC and Junts. The concretion of the amnesty for those accused of the ‘procés’ it’s another hot potato. Unlike Feijóo, the fact of not yet having a deadline allows Sánchez to negotiate with less pressure.