Today, Tappara is missing no fewer than five first category attackers. An unexpected name was put in its place.
Tough defender Luke Witkowski is crushing Tappara’s foursome. Tomi Natri / AOP
The most interesting game of the day
Tonight’s Ässät–Tappara match will feature a duel between two top goalkeepers. In the league’s goalkeeper exchange last season, measured by save percentage, he was second by Marek Langhamer after Ässien Niklas Rubin has become the number one saver in the league this season with a reading of 91.95%. Rubin’s goals conceded average is 2.00 this season.
Tapparan Christian Heljanko didn’t shine in the regular season last season as the save percentage dropped to 89.11%. This season, however, Heljanko has steeled himself already in the regular season, currently being sixth in the save statistics with 91.22% (2.29 goals conceded). The performance is even harder than the readings, as Tappara’s style of play is significantly more open this season than last season. Today, both top players are in the starting line-up in Pori.
The chance for the goalkeepers to play a big role today is increased by the fact that both Ässi and Tappara have a lot of line-up concerns, especially in terms of attacking power. Aces still lacks a defender who continues to be the team’s top scorer Martin Lefebvre and attackers Jesse Joensuu, Jonathan Davidson, Leevi Viitala and Lassi Old House.
Tappara’s forward situation is even more challenging than Äss, because the former absentees (Brother Matti Savinainen, Nicholas the Baptist, Otto Rauhala and Petri Kontiola) is also now missing as new Christian Tanus. The fact that the team’s heavy-handed defender is marked as the winger of the four chain today is the most telling about the team’s acute shortage of strikers Luke Witkowski.
Although in the two previous meetings of the season between the teams, a total of 12 goals have been scored in regular time and the expected 11.7 goals have been created, the most palatable bet with today’s lineups is the 1.89 offered for less than 4.5 goals. When betting on the winner, the best choice is the 2.72-multiplier promised for Ässie’s actual game time win.
Ässät–Tappara starts at 18:30.
A piece of statistics
The best goalkeepers in the league according to save percentage
Niklas Rubin (Aces) 91.95%
Niko Hovinen (HIFK) 91.93%
Jakub Malek (Lynx) 91.48%
Markus Ruusu (Jukurit) 91.30%
Sami Rajaniemi (HPK) 91.29%
Christian Heljanko (Tappara) 91.22%
The best betting tip of the day
Friday’s best betting ideas can be found on the Nigeria-Angola quarter-final match of the African football championship tournament. In this double sled, the level difference in the direction of Nigeria is large both in the team’s potential and in game performances. The basic difference between the teams can be seen from the fact that, according to the Transfermarkt website, which measures player values, the calculated value of the Nigerian national team is around 330 million euros, and the equivalent of Angola is only around 20 million. Of course, exactly one-to-one theoretical figures do not materialize on the field.
In terms of play, Nigeria has been extremely good in this tournament, especially defensively. In the opening group, they only conceded one goal, and in the quarterfinals, Cameroon fell cleanly 2–0. In all four matches, it has allowed the opposition to concede a total of just 1.2 goals: 0.4 goals against Guinea Bissau, 0.6 goals against Ivory Coast, 0.3 goals against Equatorial Guinea and most recently 0.2 goals against Cameroon. Angola, on the other hand, has progressed to the quarter-finals without particularly convincing. Their goal difference from their previous four matches is 9–3, but the difference in expected goals is only 4.5–4.4. The difference between Nigeria’s goal expectations is 6.7–1.2.
I personally see the level difference between Nigeria and Angola as really big and I believe that Angola’s overachievement will end today. Both Nigeria’s outright win and Angola’s scoreless draw are eligible as game ideas.
On the other hand, these are not worth playing with very low odds, because African national teams often have great difficulty playing as big favorites. Currently, the winning odds for Nigeria is 1.64. That’s just enough to decide the game. My odds limit is 1.62. A smaller hint is Angola’s zero goals with a coefficient of 1.84. Nigeria-Angola starts at 10 p.m.
Today’s games: Nigeria-Angola 1 (odds 1.64).
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 12/29/71%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.