These were almost elated tweets sent out by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after the Netherlands and Denmark pledged last weekend that Ukraine would have access to F-16 fighter jets. Zelensky posted a beaming selfie with caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte in front of a Dutch aircraft at Eindhoven Air Base. But the F-16s cannot be delivered on jump. Moreover, the American fighter jet will not play a decisive role on the battlefield, experts believe. Three questions.
1What does the arrival of F-16s mean for Ukraine?
Although the Ukrainian government has been lobbying for the arrival of F-16s for months, most defense analysts warn that the country should not have too great expectations. The F-16 is “none game changer”, say experts in the highest circles, up to and including General Mark Milley, the highest ranking military officer in the United States.
That does not mean that the F-16 has no value for Ukraine. The aircraft is often mainly associated with air strikes, but the F-16 also has important defensive tasks. Ukraine has been bombarded daily from the air for eighteen months, not only on the front lines, but especially in the cities.
Already in February of this year leaked via classified documents from the Pentagon explained that Ukraine was struggling with shortages of anti-aircraft missiles such as the S-300 and the Boek. The provision of numerous Western air defense systems has made the airspace above the capital Kyiv almost impenetrable, but the rest of the country remains vulnerable, as evidenced almost every day.
Read also: Dutch F-16s may not go to Ukraine until the end of 2024
F-16s give Ukraine an additional weapon in addition to its existing air defense systems, US General James B. Hecker, commander of the US Air Force in Europe, said late last week in return for Air & Space Forces. But Hecker also sees “no panacea” in the F-16. “What does help is that the F-16 can be equipped with weapons that Ukraine already receives from the West. Now they have to be adapted to their MiG-29 or SOe-27.”
With F-16s, Ukraine will be able to better protect its population against missiles
And because the F-16s are connected via a data link to the radars of air defense systems on the ground, such as the Patriot, Ukraine will be able to protect its population more effectively against Russian cruise missiles. At present, the Ukrainian Air Force is largely dependent on MiG-29s, a Soviet-made aircraft from the 1970s, which cannot compete with the most modern Russian aircraft. “A Russian fighter plane can see two to three times further with its radar than a Ukrainian plane,” said Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Inhat recently. in return for The Wall Street Journal. “Our pilots are actually blind.” Also in numbers it is still David against Goliath: Russia had according to the US Department of Defense last spring 485 warplanes were operational in the war zone, Ukraine itself had 85. So any warplane the West can supply is welcome. There is also the hope that the Ukrainian armed forces will eventually be able to use the F-16 in combination with other weapon systems, such as artillery and modern Western tanks. However, such a coordinated form of warfare requires so much training that Ukraine will not be able to do it for the time being.
Moreover, the F-16s are not being replaced by F-35s in NATO countries for nothing. The F-16s are, unlike the stealthy F-35, highly visible to Russian radar and therefore very vulnerable to, for example, Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
2What conditions are set for the delivery of F-16s?
The Danish Defense Minister, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, spoke on Monday about the most important condition that the Netherlands and Denmark will set for the supply of F-16s to Ukraine. These are the same as the conditions that also apply to the use of previously delivered Western main battle tanks: the aircraft may only be deployed over Ukrainian territory. “We give weapons on the condition that they are used to drive the enemy from Ukrainian territory. And no further than that,” said Ellemann-Jensen.
In the case of the deployment of F-16s from the American aircraft manufacturer Lockheed Martin, the conditions are set by the US government. Earlier, Washington already set the same condition for the use of, among other things, the artillery missile system Himars. The fact that the missiles supplied with that system do not reach further than about eighty kilometers has to do with the American concern about the escalation of the war. Partly for this reason, Washington does not supply Ukraine with ATACMS, missiles that can cover distances of up to 300 kilometres. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine does indeed lead to an escalation of the war. According to him, Russia even considers it a “nuclear threat” because the F-16 can drop nuclear weapons.
3When will the first F-16s fly over Ukraine?
So far, two F-16 countries (Denmark and the Netherlands) have committed to delivery, but the timing depends on many different factors. Denmark hopes to be able to deliver the first of a total of 19 F-16s around the turn of the year. In the case of the Netherlands, the delivery schedule strongly depends on the pace at which the F-16 will be definitively replaced by its successor, the F-35. At the moment, the 312 squadron at Volkel Air Base still has 24 F-16s in use, among other things for the surveillance of the airspace of the Benelux.
In the course of 2024, F-35s will also be able to take over these tasks and the F-16s can be disposed of, but it cannot be ruled out that the so-called Full Operational Capacity (FOC) of the F-35 will not be a reality until the end of next year. According to the latest progress report, the planning is “under pressure”. The eighteen reserve aircraft that the Ministry of Defense has stored cannot simply be handed over either. Six F-16s are planned to be sold to a US commercial party. Twelve other F-16s have been withheld by the Ministry of Defense because they are two-seaters suitable for the training of Ukrainian pilots.
The first training sessions in Denmark on the F-16 will start as soon as possible, Prime Minister Rutte announced on Sunday. However, it will be months before the first Ukrainians can fly on the F-16. And then there are all the adjustments that have to be made to the infrastructure (the Ukrainian airstrips are now too bad) and there must be enough maintenance personnel to maintain the fighter jets.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on August 22, 2023.