Now that NSC has left the formation talks with PVV, VVD and BBB, the formation is in danger of having to start from scratch. Informant Ronald Plasterk now has to make sense of the situation that has arisen and issue advice.
A right-wing majority cabinet will now come through the step of NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt certainly not. At most, Omtzigt wants to tolerate a minority cabinet, but that does not necessarily have to be a right-wing cabinet. On Wednesday evening, Plasterk will receive the leaders of all four parties again to ‘handle the talks properly’. “To be honest, I don’t really understand what exactly Mr Omtzigt wants,” he responded.
It seems unlikely that the four parties will decide on Wednesday evening to continue discussing the minority variant desired by Omtzigt. The leader of the largest party PVV, Geert Wilders, has previously said that he prefers a normal majority cabinet. On Tuesday evening he noted with disappointment that Omtzigt had ‘thrown in the towel’.
After Wednesday evening’s conversation, Plasterk will report to the House of Representatives on what has happened over the past two months. He will also provide advice on how he thinks things should proceed. Next week, a parliamentary majority will decide on the next step in a debate.
It is still unclear which one that will be. There are actually only two options: or it is decided that PVV, VVD and BBB will continue discussing a minority cabinet. Or it is decided to try another majority variant first.
Failed attempt
In previous formations, the second variant was always chosen after a first failed attempt. There is a chance that, just like previous times, a new scout will be appointed who will again provide advice on which parties should try to reach an agreement. In that case, this time not the PVV but the second party GroenLinks-PvdA could take the lead in the formation. But the chance that Frans Timmermans’ party will succeed in forming a majority coalition seems minimal. The PVV has been excluded by Timmermans and the VVD has indicated that it does not want to cooperate with him.
If other coalitions are tried later that also fail, it is not impossible that the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB will sit around the table together again. Because in politics, something that is impossible now may happen later. If it takes long enough for a new cabinet to emerge and dissatisfaction among voters increases, parties always scratch their heads.
We saw something like that in 2010, the last time negotiations took place with the PVV. Then a first attempt to form a coalition with the PVV also failed. After a failed attempt ‘on the left’, a right-wing cabinet was formed. However, it was a minority cabinet, with tolerable support from the PVV.
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