What exactly has been agreed?
After eight days of intense negotiations, the Ethiopian government and the dissident state administrators of the Tigray region (the TPLF) have reached a ceasefire. The deal includes important agreements that should lead to an end to the now two-year conflict. For example, the warring parties have put together a disarmament plan for the Tigres army. The Tigres troops must be disarmed and become part of the federal army. In the short term it will also be possible to send relief supplies to the war zone in northwestern Ethiopia.
What will civilians notice from the ceasefire?
The Ethiopian government has shut Tigray off from the outside world for a long time: there was no internet or electricity, and medicines and food barely found their way to the war zone. Due to the agreements that have now been made, the movement of relief supplies should soon get going again. The lion’s share of Tigres needs food aid, according to the World Health Organization, one third of the children suffer from malnutrition.
The toll of the war has been high. Researchers from Ghent University estimate that between 380 and 600 thousand civilians have died since November 2020. Only 30 to 90 thousand of them have died in direct attacks, such as bombings. The rest is a result of a shortage of food and a lack of medication.
Is the war over now?
Although far-reaching and ambitious conditions for a truce have been agreed, the flag cannot be removed immediately. “This moment is not the end of the peace process, but the beginning,” said former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who led the peace negotiations on behalf of the African Union. ‘The implementation of the agreement signed today is essential.’
The TPLF and the federal government also agreed to a ceasefire in March this year, but it was violated in August by the Tigreans, who said the federal army was about to launch a large-scale offensive.
What happened behind the scenes?
A stable Ethiopia is important in East Africa, both for neighboring countries and for other partners. That’s why envoys from the US, the EU, the UN and the African Union interfered with the deal – much to the chagrin of President Abiy Ahmed. “When there are many interventions left and right, it is very difficult to reach an agreement,” he said while talks were still in full swing. “Ethiopians need to understand that we can solve our own problems.”
Analyst Alan Boswell, who follows the Tigray War for the International Crisis Group, sees African mediation as an example for other conflicts on the continent. “The United States failed to informally bring the warring parties to the table,” he says, “so this is a good example of how an African-led peace deal can work.”
What is going to happen now?
The details of the agreement need to be worked out. The hottest issue is the disarmament of the Tigres troops. “There is a real risk that this stock will crash or break in the near future,” said analyst Boswell. ‘Especially when you see how soon the disarmament has to start. It’s a very fraught process.’ Moreover, it remains to be seen whether all Tigreans will rally behind the file. At first glance, the federal government seems to have come out of the negotiations best.
Nevertheless, Boswell is optimistic about the agreement reached. ‘This is the framework for the coming period. There may be hiccups in the execution of the truce, but it is likely that this is the endgame.”