Since the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was closed on Monday, Germany has been buzzing with emergency scenarios and priority lists. Will the gas come back next week and if not, who will be the first to suffer? The leisure sector? The chemical industry? Will we continue to transit gas to neighboring countries? Should the heater be lower? Can we have a hot shower later? But above all, in the parks and streets of Berlin, there is hopeful confidence: it won’t get that bad, will it?
Few Germans, especially young Germans, can still imagine what a society with shortages looks like. It is precisely for this that the government must prepare society, while at the same time doing everything it can to avert the crisis. But the fate of the Germans, and of countries receiving gas through Germany, is not in the hands of the government in Berlin. Putin is on the move again.
Nord Stream 1 is not only crucial for Germany. Last year nearly 60 billion cubic meters of gas flowed through the pipeline, ten times the total Dutch import of Russian gas that year. More than a third of all gas (Russian, Norwegian, Dutch and other) that reaches Germany flows through to neighboring countries. On July 11, Nord Stream closed for scheduled maintenance until July 21. But, said Economy Minister Robert Habeck: “It wouldn’t be ‘super surprising’ if a small part is found somewhere that makes people say: Now we can’t put him on anymore.’
It wouldn’t be the first time. In June, Gazprom reduced gas supply through Nord Stream to 40 percent of normal volume. According to Russia, for technical reasons, a gas turbine that was in Canada for maintenance could not be returned to Russia due to sanctions. Nonsense, said Germany; Russia is cutting gas for political reasons. The turbine is now on its way to Russia again. Germany hopes that it will arrive there before July 21. Everything is possible with that, Habeck said earlier: ‘It is possible that the gas will come back, even more than (the 40 percent) before. It is also possible that nothing will come of it.‘
Seven scenarios
Everything is possible and Germany is preparing for everything. The Bundesnetzagenturoperator of the energy grid, has calculated seven scenarios. Three of them will end in gas shortages next winter. Even if Nord Stream becomes 40 percent operational again after July 21, that will not be enough to fill Germany’s gas reserves sufficiently. Security of supply can then only be guaranteed if Germany either transits less gas to neighboring countries or if Germans reduce their consumption by at least 20 percent. If Nord Stream remains closed, it has to do both: drastic savings in Germany and less gas for the neighbors.
The government has been asking Germans for months to lower the thermostat and take shorter showers. Countless municipalities, housing cooperatives and other institutions limit their energy consumption. Street lighting is lower in Cologne. A huge outdoor pool closed in Düsseldorf. Germany’s largest housing cooperative has ordered a (legally dubious) nighttime maximum temperature of 17 degrees.
Adjusted for temperature – the month was exceptionally warm – Germans used 10.7 percent less gas in May than a year earlier. Unadjusted figures for June and July indicate savings of 10 to 12 percent. Conclusion: they are doing their best, also for the neighbours, but they are not there yet.
Homes and hospitals first
If the Russian gas does not come back, the government will ration the limited supply. Minister Habeck previously rejected the idea of reducing gas transit to neighboring countries as ‘illegal and absurd.This week he was in Prague and Vienna to show German solidarity in the event of shortages. That makes drastic cutbacks in Germany all the more urgent.
First, the gas consumption in leisure facilities will probably be limited: the temperature in swimming pools must be lower, warm water in sports centers is no longer a matter of course. Industrial large consumers can be denied gas, possibly even from hour to hour. Hospitals, schools, supermarkets, food producers and SMEs are given priority. There is no exact step-by-step plan, at least not in public: the government says it must determine the ranking per day and per region.
Households are also protected, although Habeck questioned that this week. If shortages last for months, Habeck said, then the industry can’t stay behind. Private individuals can also be expected to contribute.
boiling frog
For the average German, the impending crisis has not yet caused great unrest. There is no run on electric heaters, no price explosion on diesel generators. The tenor of the drinks is: we’ll see how it goes. Many Europeans sit like frogs in slowly warming water, staring with interest at the burner under the bowl, believing it can’t get that hot. But it can.
“Several catastrophes have nearly torn Europe apart over the past decade,” writes The Economist. ‘This includes the euro crisis in the early ’10s and the migrant crisis in 2015. The energy crisis in the winter of 2022 could join that list. The unity of the continent will soon be put to the test again. Consumers hardly realize what to expect then.’