The depressed atmosphere in the Hungarian opposition on election night turns into a funeral mood as soon as the result takes on clear contours. The meager number of supporters (several hundred) who have gathered at the gathering trickle down to a small group in the icy April night. Cardboard signs that read ‘Only up!’ and ‘Power to the People’ suck up rainwater from the empty, concrete ice rink where a party should have taken place.
At the start of election night, there was still some optimism among the opposition, who thought they could rival Orbán by joining forces. But that gave way to disappointment and sadness when the first results came in. By midnight Hungary’s entire electoral map was orange, the color of ruling party Fidesz. The united opposition has not even managed to stop a ‘super-majority’. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán retains the two-thirds majority with which he radically changed the country in recent years.
The Hungarian electoral system and government-dominated media landscape gave Fidesz an advantage in many ways. But Orbán’s large majority – 135 of the 199 seats in parliament – surprised many. The opposition won only 56 seats and the far-right party Mi Hazánk won seven seats in parliament. The turnout was high at almost 70 percent.
The result shows that Orbán has not only manipulated the electoral process, but also remains popular with many Hungarians. He will become prime minister for the fifth time (he also ruled the country between 1998 and 2002) and will start his fourth consecutive term in office. If he completes these, he will be in power for twenty years.
Orbán as a beacon of stability
The war in Ukraine left its mark on the Hungarian elections. According to Orbán, the election was a choice between peace (Orbán) and war (opposition). He presented himself as a beacon of stability in a troubled world. The government’s media empire cultivated this image, disguising the political ties between Orbán and Putin, while spreading falsehoods about the opposition. For the opposition, a coalition of six politically very different parties, it proved difficult to create an unambiguous message and to mobilize voters.
At the party meeting of Fidesz on Sunday evening, the atmosphere was great. “We have achieved a great victory. A victory so big that you can even see it from the moon, but definitely from Brussels,” said Orbán. In his speech, he outlined who Fidesz’s opponents were in these elections: Brussels, the ‘left’ (internationally and in Hungary), organizations of philanthropist George Soros, NGOs, media and the president of Ukraine.
Orbán will use his voters’ mandate to further consolidate his power. After the defeat of the united opposition, which many progressive Hungarians had pinned their hopes on, the question arises as to how far a political struggle can be waged against Orbán. And that also raises questions about the sustainability of the current coalition. Katalin Cseh, MEP for opposition party Momentum, emphasizes the importance of sticking together. The opposition must remain united. We must cling to every ray of hope.’
Cracks in the opposition
But after the results, the first cracks were already visible. Opposition leader Péter Márki-Zay in particular has to suffer. Not only did he lose the battle for the premiership, he also lost out in his own constituency against an old Fidesz star. A future in national politics no longer seems an option.
Significantly, his speech was surrounded not by other opposition leaders, as in campaign time, but by his family. Márki-Zay did not contest the result in his speech, but called the election unfair. After midnight, the first opposition leader withdrew all confidence in him: the leader of Jobbik, the far-right party that has taken a more moderate course, said there is no place for him in the future of the united opposition.
A deeply divided country
Orbán has won, but is prime minister of a deeply divided country. The country is in bad shape economically. The government has spent mountains of money to win voters’ favors and has not built up any reserves. It is uncertain how long Orbán can keep energy prices artificially low and what exactly he can do to curb high inflation. If he continues to seek the conflict with Brussels, EU funds may not be forthcoming, one of the corks that the Hungarian economy floats on. And his attitude to the war in Ukraine may have paid off in Hungary, but internationally he is more of a pariah than ever. Even Poland, which often joined Hungary in the fight against Brussels, has largely frozen relations with Budapest.
That didn’t seem to bother Orbán on election night. “It’s never looked better for us than it does now.” Next to the empty ice rink of the opposition is Csaba (58), a university lecturer who fears for his job if he also gives his last name. Orbán and his cronies remind him of the ‘complacent, fat communists at the end of their regime’. History teaches us that in the end everything changes, says Csaba emotionally. “But we’ve had Fidesz for so many years. This just takes too long for a human life.’