What does Ronald Koeman have to think about this winter in order to be successful at the European Championships in the summer?

Monday, March 18, 2024. That day in Zeist, headquarters of the Dutch national team, the “first measuring moment” awaits in the preparation for the European Football Championship in Germany next summer. Two practice matches are scheduled for that international period in March, including against Germany. Then the contours of a team that is still surrounded by question marks in several areas and key positions must become clear.

For national coach Ronald Koeman, the preparation for the European Championship has already started. Especially after the final qualifying match against Gibraltar (6-0 away win) on Tuesday evening, and shortly before the European Championship draw on December 2 in Hamburg. In the coming months, after a messy Dutch year, he will “think very carefully” about the composition of the selection, Koeman said last week. He announced that “changes” are coming.

What exactly does he have to think about this winter in order to be successful in the summer?

Sharpening certainties

Including the match against Gibraltar, in which Jorrel Hato and Thijs Dallinga made their debuts, Koeman used no fewer than 37 players in ten international matches this year. For comparison: in 2019, the last full year in Koeman’s first period as national coach, there were 25. “The axis of the team was always fit, was always good,” Koeman said about that first term. That is what he has in mind later on. He wants to work towards the European Championship “in a targeted manner with a permanent group”.

This hardly happened in 2023, due to injuries, illness and loss of form. It is important for a national coach to build in as many automatisms as possible – game system, agreements per line, ‘couples’ on the flanks – in the short time he has. Apart from the individual qualities, therein lies the strength of national teams such as Croatia and France, where players know how to find each other blindly.

The Netherlands is not that far yet, far from it. Mutual coordination is poor. Such as on the right flank between Denzel Dumfries and Donyell Malen, visible in the matches against Italy in June and against Greece in October. It was unclear who had to defend which opponent. To Koeman’s frustration: why didn’t the players organize this on the field?

Those weren’t the only moments. “Look where they are standing, the two of them,” said Koeman on Saturday during the European Championship qualifying match against Ireland about the field occupancy, captured by a NOS camera. “Wout, you have to go there, to the right,” he said to striker Weghorst, who had to put pressure on the Irish defenders with attacker Cody Gakpo. Koeman thought that his team dropped too far because they did not put enough pressure up front. As a result, the Dutch team had little control over midfield in phases.

It illustrates how thin the base is. And that was not solved in one week in March. In the European Championship preparation, it will come down to Koeman’s craftsmanship, in his first major final tournament as national coach: can he tactically hone his team in a short time so that it becomes a machine?

The way of playing with three central defenders and attacking wing defenders offers some support. That system, in which the Dutch team shows itself to be more robust defensively, forms the framework for the European Championship – just as it did previously at the 2014 World Cup, the 2021 European Championship and the 2022 World Cup. At the same time, Koeman wants to be flexible and be able to change formations within matches, especially to the classic 4-3-3.

These different formations present him with a challenge: he will have to take them into account in his selection. Should Matthijs de Ligt, who has proven to function less well in a block with three central defenders, come along? Probably yes, because he can be valuable in a traditional four-man defense. And he is considered one of the leaders of the future Orange. But only 23 are allowed to go to Germany. Of which three goalkeepers alone.

Undisputed goalkeeper

The carousel under the Dutch crossbar, in figures: eight different goalkeepers, in the last 36 international matches. Tim Krul, Maarten Stekelenburg, Justin Bijlow, Jasper Cillessen, Mark Fleken, Remko Pasveer, Andries Noppert and Bart Verbruggen. There was always something – then an injury, then he was out of shape again, then the Orange shirt was perhaps too heavy for that one.

Koeman is not happy with all those changes. He wants stability in the goal. This is also important for coordination with the defenders: how do you build up, how do you defend standard situations, how do you act when exiting? Rest in that position, “that is always where you want to go,” Koeman said last week.

Also read
this profile of Dutch goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen

He seems to have found that peace in the last four international matches with the talented 21-year-old Bart Verbruggen, goalkeeper at Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League. Koeman is satisfied with him for the moment, but that does not mean that he will choose Verbruggen for the European Championship. “Then we’ll just look again.” He “maybe” wants to have two different goalkeepers play in the two practice matches in March, he said on Monday.

What speaks in favor of Verbruggen is that he is active in a top European competition and can only develop further due to his age. Although that lack of experience can also be interpreted as a disadvantage. And Koeman thinks it is “not ideal” that Verbruggen alternates the matches at Brighton with Jason Steele, who has also been favored more often lately. Koeman had not missed the “mistake” against Ireland – Verbruggen let a ball roll through his legs – he was lucky that it was offside.

His main competitor is Bijlow, and it was not without reason that Koeman chose him in the Nations League final round in June. If he had stayed fit – he injured his wrist – he would most likely have stayed standing. Feyenoord’s goalkeeper has a history of injuries, which means he is not the undisputed first choice for the national coach.

Companion of Frenkie de Jong

Who will play next to playmaker Frenkie de Jong at the European Championship? That is still unclear for Koeman. He has not been able to vary much this year, De Jong was missing from six of the ten international matches due to injuries. In the four matches that he did play, he was paired with Feyenoord midfielder Mats Wieffer three times – which was not a great success.

A stimulating thought is a duo with Tijjani Reijnders, who became one of the revelations for the Dutch team this autumn. With his passing and depth, the AC Milan midfielder provides a lot of dynamics.

But Reijnders emphatically sees himself as an attacking midfielder, not as a controller. That makes a role next to De Jong less logical. With his ball retention and creativity, Reijnders is an option for one of the two attacking positions (‘double ten’) behind the centre-forward.

Marten de Roon was De Jong’s permanent partner for a long time, especially in Koeman’s first period (2018-2020). Although not the most technical midfielder, he complemented De Jong well with his tactical insight. Moreover, he is one of the informal leaders in the team. However, it is unlikely that Koeman will join him again soon, De Roon does not bring much in possession of the ball and was notable for a number of unfortunate performances this year.

There are plenty of options. In addition to Wieffer, also Teun Koopmeiners, Joey Veerman and Jerdy Schouten. And Ryan Gravenberch, who has revived at Liverpool, “would fit in very well there,” Koeman said on Monday. Yet an outspoken candidate has not yet emerged. “Those are the difficult choices I am going to have.”

A fit top striker

It is the line with the most limitations: the attack. Especially the striker position. Koeman still hopes for Memphis Depay (29), who has never fully returned to top level after his cruciate ligament injury at the end of 2019 and regularly has injuries. He missed eight of the ten international matches this year.

“Memphis has not been fit for a very long time,” Koeman said on Monday. “But Memphis being fit and good is still an added value for this team.”

The question is how long he wants to wait for that. His predecessor Louis van Gaal did it for the World Cup at the end of 2022 in Qatar, where Depay had recovered just in time from a thigh injury. The current striker of Atlético Madrid could not live up to expectations, he was visibly not yet in top condition.

In June in the Nations League final round, Koeman tried with Liverpool striker Cody Gakpo as striker. That remained a one-off, not very successful experiment. Other options are Malen, Dallinga or Brian Brobbey – all of whom have so far been found wanting.

For now it is Wout Weghorst, striker at the German TSG Hoffenheim. With a number of crucial goals he made himself indispensable for the Dutch team. “He is important not only on the field, but also off the field,” says Koeman. “How he experiences being with the Dutch team. He is working every moment to improve as a player, to be enthusiastic, to bring intensity to his training and in his experience of matches. That is important for a group, others see that too.”

Does Koeman dare to build his attacking line around the – according to critics – technically limited Weghorst towards the European Championship? It is one of the most difficult issues for the national coach in the coming months.