Putin’s war has entered a new phase since last week, a phase that also poses an increased risk to the West. The war has not gone as planned for the Kremlin for quite some time. After Kiev proved to be an impregnable fortress, Russia concentrated on the south and east, only to get stuck there after initial gains. In an astonishing counter-offensive, Ukraine even managed to recapture thousands of square kilometers of territory at the beginning of this month.
Putin’s problems are not limited to the battlefield. Major countries that initially did not criticize him are increasingly openly distancing themselves. China, India and Turkey have highlighted the consequences of the war and called for negotiations. Turkish President Erdogan even said that Russia must return occupied territories, including Crimea, which Russia took over back in 2014. In their own country, hardliners have become openly more critical of the course of the war in recent weeks.
Putin’s answer was threefold. He announced a partial mobilization, which is rather chaotic and has led to an exodus of young men. He also ordered referendums to be held in four Russian-occupied regions in southern and eastern Ukraine. The population is allowed to vote on annexation by Russia, a plebiscite whose outcome is predetermined.
In addition, Putin said that any threat to Russia’s territorial integrity will be answered “with all the means at our disposal.” Since then, former President Medvedev has reiterated twice that Russia has the right to defend itself with nuclear weapons. The parts of Ukraine to be annexed will in principle also fall under Moscow’s nuclear umbrella.
Putin has created an exceptionally precarious situation. Direct threats with nuclear weapons are not often made. The US once threatened China with an atomic bomb in the 1950s. Pakistan and India have never threatened each other with nuclear weapons. And in the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russia only wanted to station nuclear weapons near the US.
It is quite conceivable that Putin is bluffing. Yet there is only one possible response to his threat: don’t ignore it, but don’t bow to it either.
Analysts and weapons experts have pointed out that while for Putin there are huge downsides to using a nuclear weapon, you can never be sure what a desperate leader will do if his conventional weapons don’t bring the desired gains. It would therefore be irresponsible to ignore the threat with a shrug. President Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the US has made clear to Moscow that using a nuclear weapon will have “catastrophic” consequences.
Even more dangerous than ignoring the threat is to give in to it. Western politicians have rightly made it clear in recent days that they do not intend to. Prime Minister Rutte was firm. In a phone call with Kiev, he reiterated Dutch support for Ukraine and promised new arms supplies. To underline that you should never give in to a man like Putin, Rutte even put him on a par with Adolf Hitler in an interview, a comparison that politicians are usually not tempted to make. It is typical of the relationship that a comparison of the Russian president with the personification of evil does not stir up controversy.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of September 28, 2022