Another week and a half and the Netherlands will elect a new House of Representatives. After what, it was thought in advance, could well be the most exciting election campaign in years. After all, the challenges this country faces are enormous, complex and of such a systemic nature that choices have to be made. After years of postponement policies, the housing shortage, increasing immigration, increasing demand for care and associated costs, insecurity, climate change and energy transition require this. Screaming about it.
Voters, as every survey shows, are also looking for solutions. To politicians who link actions to words. Who are not concerned with themselves, but tackle the crises. Confidence in the government, as every study shows, will only return when citizens notice that government is really being governed.
From the neighborhood survey that NRC held in the run-up to the elections, for which 336 voters were interviewed throughout the Netherlands, this picture also emerges. There are high expectations that politicians will tackle the problems. The lack of affordable rental and owner-occupied housing is cited as the biggest concern, linked to migration and the perceived priority given to certain groups, including status holders and Ukrainian refugees, in the allocation of housing.
The voters NRC spoke to see that there is room for something new in this first election after thirteen years of Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD). And at the same time, few have the confidence that ‘The Hague’ has the ability to come up with feasible solutions.
In that respect, it is disappointing that the campaign, especially on television, has so far not really been about those solutions. Despite the fact that the political leaders themselves continually say that they want to discuss the content. If you listen carefully, you will see that they are now very adept at identifying all crises and problems, and at sensing what the voter is concerned about.
But the ‘how’ is not discussed enough. Unless, as a voter, you go to shared debates about, for example, the impending drinking water shortage, or listen to podcasts in which politicians are extensively interviewed. However, the fragmented media landscape and the fragmented political landscape mean that there is a good chance that people will preach to their own parish.
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NRC briefly summarized the programs of 17 political parties per theme.
The election manifestos also show that parties make many promises, but do not sufficiently explain how they will fulfill them. Nor what the feasibility of plans is and which topics have priority, the Social and Cultural Planning Office concluded.
While one choice will influence the other. For example, anyone who puts housing construction first will have to accept the nitrogen problem for granted. Anyone who wants to curb healthcare costs will have to make a choice about, for example, the type of care that the government wants to guarantee. Anyone who wants to curb immigration will have to make a decision about acute labor shortages and an aging society.
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Hard cuts? No party wants that
The calculation by the Central Planning Bureau and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency last week is traditionally one of the tools that provides clarity to voters. But of the parties that, according to the Peilingwijzer, have a chance of winning one or more seats, seven did not participate in what they call a ‘model reality’.
That refusal shows disdain for the voter. There is of course something to criticize about the CPB and PBL calculation – the preventive effect of investments in education and healthcare in particular is difficult to convert into economic value. But the calculations help to form an overall picture. Politics also means choosing, especially in times of scarcity and at a time when concrete and implementable plans are required.
Parties seem to confuse the fact that voters are fed up with politicians who are only concerned with themselves, with depoliticizing all differences. No, a battle of ideas is necessary for informed voting. Six in ten voters are thinking of a particular party, but are also considering other parties, the report showed latest poll by I&O Research.
Ultimately, the voter will have to decide for himself on what basis and for whom he will vote. It is therefore up to the politicians to convince him that his concerns are in good hands. High time for a campaign about plans and their feasibility. Now is the time, not just at the formation table.