Anyone who thought that Russia would really not stop supplying gas to the Netherlands has lost an illusion since last week. The Russian state-owned company Gazprom bluntly stopped deliveries to GasTerra because the Dutch company refused to pay in rubles. This was not really unexpected: Poland, Bulgaria and Finland had already been closed off before.
Unfortunately, the cabinet was reluctant to admit that sacrifice is inevitable in a war, even if the battlefield is far away. Instead, Minister Rob Jetten (Climate, D66) tried to prevent public unrest by saying that the Russian decision will have no consequences for households and – phrased more cautiously – “expectedly” not for companies either. His invocative words had little effect. Energy experts and major users have accused the government of insufficiently preparing for a gas crisis. The underground gas storages that the Netherlands has are not even half full and there are concerns about whether it will be possible to fill them before the winter.
In Groningen, the understandable fear arose that the cabinet would then open the gas tap there again. Even though Jetten said that this is “really the very last option” and Prime Minister Rutte also promised that this will only happen “at the end, at the end, at the end”. What will not strengthen the confidence of the people of Groningen is the advice of the Mining Council this week to regard the deployment of the Groningen gas field as a ‘real option’ and to prepare in advance. A proposal that is at odds with the advice of the State Supervision of Mines, which fears new, more severe earthquakes.
According to Minister Jetten, the loss of Russian gas will not pose a problem in the coming four months, because GasTerra has anticipated this by purchasing gas elsewhere. Sensible of course. Good news is that the Netherlands has consumed less gas this year. But the question remains whether there will be enough gas for everyone in the long term. Jetten emphasized that the Netherlands already wanted to get rid of Russian gas and that the contract would expire in October anyway. This does not alter the fact that the switch to sustainable alternatives takes time, so the gas that Russia no longer supplies – about 15 percent of the gas needs – will have to come from somewhere.
For the time being, there is sufficient supply from other countries. That import will become more difficult if more allies of Ukraine are cut off from Russian gas. In the meantime, the cabinet is trying to encourage gas companies with subsidies to fill the gas storage facilities. There is no certainty that this will work. Jetten is preparing for “all scenarios”. There is an emergency plan in which large consumers are switched off. They are already feeling the mood and are pushing for controversial measures: producing more electricity with coal instead of gas, drilling for shale gas in the Wadden Sea (a successful lobby) and the use of the Groningen gas field as an emergency measure.
Neither option is attractive: the cabinet wants to get rid of polluting coal-fired power stations, gas extraction at sea is met with resistance from nature conservationists and the Wadden Islands, and the people of Groningen have been promised that the gas tap will be closed. Whatever the solution, soothing words that the Netherlands will not feel anything about stopping Russian gas supplies are untrue. The cabinet must not hide the fact that the choice to support Ukraine has domestic consequences. It can better explain why it is worth bearing the cost of that choice.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of 9 June 2022