Western countries have sidelined Russia internationally since the invasion of Ukraine with seldom seen unity. But it is an illusion to think that Russia is really isolated. A vote in the United Nations General Assembly in March showed that Russia has fewer enemies, especially in the developing world. Seventeen African countries abstained from condemning the Russian aggression at the time, eight were not present at the vote. This boost for Russia was continued at the end of July with an African tour by the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov’s warm welcome in four key countries revealed a new geopolitical reality that calls for a coherent response from Europe.
Russia has been trying to regain a foothold in Africa for some time now. Until the late 1980s, the Soviet Union had close relations with young socialist governments on the continent. In addition to loans and weapons, they also sought an alternative to Western power politics, which were often seen as neo-colonial. Nowhere in the struggle for spheres of influence did the Cold War become as hot as in parts of Africa. Russia’s current interest is part of a wider movement that, referring to the colonial division in the 19th century, has sometimes new scramble for Africa mentioned: in addition to traditional trading partners from the West, countries such as India, Iran, Turkey and Brazil have also discovered the African continent, following China’s lead.
There are good economic reasons for this. No continent is growing as fast as Africa. By 2050, according to calculations by the World Bank, a quarter of the world’s population – 2.2 billion out of about 9 billion people – will live in Africa. That is a huge sales market. Conversely, many of the raw materials that will be needed in the coming decades to make economies more sustainable are available in African countries. Attention for Africa can therefore not only be profitable, but is also strategically important.
Justly the Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV) pointed this out last month that Europe has lost a lot of influence in Africa. Understandably, the West has lost sympathy due to its colonial past, trade restrictions and unintended side effects of development aid. The new trading partners give African countries what they ask, without blatantly pointing out democratic shortcomings or human rights violations. This became clearly visible recently in Mali, which in the fight against jihadism exchanged soldiers from former colonizer France for mercenaries affiliated with the Kremlin. That this Wagner Group also has other interests and intentions became apparent from journalistic research in the Central African Republic: concessions for gold, diamonds and hardwood fell into the hands of subsidiaries.
It is up to African countries themselves to choose business partners and ideological allies. But it would be good for EU countries to work together on a new approach to the continent in which those liberal values do continue to play a role. Economic development simply thrives better with freedom and a solid rule of law; opposition politicians in the countries Lavrov visited also pointed this out. The AIV recommends acting quickly in order to cope with the current food crisis – a consequence of the Russian aggression in Ukraine. That sounds sensible and necessary. Stability and development in Africa help both shores of the Mediterranean and are therefore also a matter for Europe in the longer term.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of August 9, 2022