The word ‘trust’ is used seven times in the coalition agreement that VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie concluded in 2022, after almost a year of formation. Citizens’ trust in politics had entered the danger zone. The cabinet had fallen over the benefits scandal. The ‘position elsewhere’ for the critical Member of Parliament Pieter Omtzigt (then still CDA) had revealed the ugly face of politics. The formation became the slowest in parliamentary history. And the major problems that the fallen Rutte III cabinet was supposed to solve – compensation of benefit parents, the nitrogen crisis, the stalled infrastructure and housing – had been postponed time and time again. And well, finally another Rutte cabinet took office, with exactly the same parties, but this time it would be different. Restoring trust would be key. And, as Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) said when his fourth cabinet took office, that will only happen if citizens see that the cabinet rules, especially in those difficult dossiers.
Is the government doing what it promised to do? The coalition agreement was ambitious, with a lot of extra money for climate and nitrogen policy in particular. But in practice, little is done about it. The nitrogen crisis not only paralyzes construction and infrastructure projects, but also leads to a political standstill. The cabinet has driven itself into the mud in this dossier, and seems to see no way out. In fact, the question is whether there is still a cabinet. After crisis consultations, last Friday, the cabinet came out with a divided message. This week, during a marathon debate, the division became openly visible. The CDA is questioning the reduction of nitrogen by half in 2030, as agreed in the coalition agreement. The party wants to renegotiate this. Not now, but in a few months. The differences of opinion are so great that it cannot be ruled out that the cabinet will fall.
Nitrogen policy is stuck on all sides. The problem is clear: significantly less nitrogen needs to be produced. As long as that does not happen, nature will be seriously damaged and numerous projects will not be able to proceed due to court decisions. It was sensible for the coalition to agree in 2022 to reduce nitrogen production by half by 2030. But the CDA, a party in dire straits, has started fiddling with that agreement. It all started with an interview of party leader Wopke Hoekstra in the AD, last summer, in which he called that year “not sacred.” The blow of the BoerBurgerBeweging at the provincial elections was interpreted by the CDA as a signal from the voter, and a warning of impending political downfall. The way out now is to wait. On the Agriculture Agreement, which is still being negotiated. On the formations in the provinces. And on the financial arrangements that have already been set in motion. Rutte expressed the hope that this delaying tactic would lead to an “acceleration” of nitrogen policy, but that is throwing sand in the eyes of the voters. The coalition is deeply divided, especially CDA and D66, and nothing is going to happen in this impasse. It is right that the cabinet is cautious about bold statements, now that all provinces are still being formed. Those provinces will ultimately have to implement the policy as they see fit. But what the cabinet is doing now is to take a backseat and see what happens. That’s inappropriate. The government should lead the way, set the goals and clearly provide the context within which those goals must be achieved. The national government is not the last to act, but the first. Brushing off irreconcilable political differences in this way is never a solution.
Nitrogen was one of the major problems that Rutte IV had to solve. It is sad that so little happens in this dossier, however difficult the dossier may be. And it is indicative of the Rutte IV cabinet, which already started with a backlog when it took office. After all, one year of formation means one year less to govern. Where is the promised compensation for the benefit parents? Where is the handling of the gas dossier in Groningen? The standstill in the nitrogen dossier is now added to this. Decisiveness was needed to restore confidence, Rutte said himself, but that is precisely what is lacking. The cabinet decided to postpone so as not to fall. That can be explained politically, but a cabinet is not there for itself. There will have to be government, difficult choices should not be postponed all the time. Not only nature, but also confidence in politics must be restored. The question increasingly arises as to which is more harmful: a missionary cabinet that does not govern or a cabinet that resigns and calls for new elections.
Also read this analysis: Not vital, not undead: Rutte IV lives in the twilight zone
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of April 8, 2023