Before we believed that Russia was not going to invade Ukraine because Putin swore to us that this was not his intention. No one is better deceived than the one who wants to believe the lie.
We used to believe that the wars of colonial expansion they were something typical of the 19th century, forgetting that Russia has not decolonized the empire that the tsars forged in Siberia and the Caucasus. The USSR has disappeared and the Baltic countries have regained their freedom but Chechnya, Ingushetia or Dagestanto give three examples, they have not been allowed.
Before we believed that these things could not happen in the civilized Old Continent and with shameful racist reflexes we thought that perhaps in Africa these barbarities could still be done, conveniently forgetting that 30 years ago Yugoslavia was blown up and Serbs, Bosnians and Croats started to compete in massacres with the Hutus and Tutsis. And at the same time.
Before we believed that Ukraine would not resist and that Russian soldiers would enter kyiv to install a puppet government like the one in Belarus. We were wrong again. The Ukraine endured, Zelensky did not abandon his post and we Westerners have given him the help that his heroic resistance demanded.
Before, we believed that the Ukrainians could not beat the Russians and it is these who have had to lower their ambitions when they have not come out with their tails between their legs. And now Putin has to decree a partial mobilization that runs into strong domestic resistance.
We used to believe that people flee when someone invades their country and it turns out that the Russians flee when they are the invaders.
We used to believe that the whole world would condemn the invasion of a peaceful country by its powerful neighbor. Westerners have done it but most of Africa, Asia and Latin America look the other way to the point that Biden wanted to exclude Putin from the next G-20 meeting and found himself without the necessary votes to achieve it. They believe that it is a fight between Europeans that does not concern them directly and they do not want to antagonize a powerful country, a nuclear power, with the right of veto in the Security Council and that in the past helped in the colonial liberation struggles. That he sells them weapons and that I gave them vaccines against covid when we westerners hoarded them.
Before, we believed that the sanctions would break Russia and it turns out that we almost feel them more, that as the Russian Minister of Defense says, we have much less capacity to resist than his long-suffering compatriots.
Before we believed that the Russian economy would collapse and although at first the ruble collapsed by 30% and the stock market had to be temporarily closed, it has since reared its head. Putin doesn’t know about economics but he has left it in the hands of those who do, the ruble has recovered and inflation is not much worse than it is among us. And if they sell less gas and oil, they do so at higher prices. Nor has unemployment suffered as expected. What will affect them in the medium term will be the lack of spare parts, especially for the energy industry.
Before we believed in “strategic autonomy & rdquor; of Europe against the US, in case Trump or someone similar came back and left us out in the open again in defense. Today that debate has disappeared because in times of crisis NATO (with the US inside) is the only one that offers real security and that is why Sweden and Finland have abandoned their neutrality and knocked on his door. Pure fear. Now the “strategic autonomy & rdquor; What we need is not against the United States but against our intolerable dependence on Russia for energy.
Before, we believed that the US strategy was to help Ukraine and now we see that it also seeks to weaken Russia (Austin ‘dixit’), test new weapons and sell gas at gold prices to the Europeans. And that heralds a long war being waged on four fronts: military, economic, political and humanitarian, and in which all swords are raised.
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We used to believe that Russia would not use its nuclear arsenal. Today I do not dare to comment on whether he will use them to defend the piece of Ukraine (15%) that he has just incorporated with fraudulent referendums.
And it is that this looks bad and we can no longer trust what reason tells us.