“We have advanced, but not enough”

Now that one year has passed since this ‘climate ultimatum’, various experts take stock of achievements and pending challenges achieved since then. The most optimistic argue that “we have advanced, but not enough.” The most skeptical, for their part, denounce that “there is still much to be done.”

“In recent years there have been several advances in climate matters, but many of these achievements for now are only reflected on paper. We need to implement these policies as soon as possible,” explains Laura Ramajo, researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones (CEAZA) and one of the authors of the latest IPCC report. “Globally, this year we have experienced more setbacks than advances“, adds Sérgio Henrique Faria, professor at the Basque Center for Climate Change, also an author of the IPCC.

bittersweet balance

One of the major ‘climate milestones’ of the last year has been the Glasgow Climate Summit (COP26), the meeting that promised to mark the “beginning of the end of the climate crisis” but that, finally, was settled with the promise to postpone the great agreements to the next summit. During the meeting, beyond the diplomatic debate, several international agreements were also forged on, for example, limit the expansion of fossil fuelsreduce methane emissions, stop and reverse deforestation, promote clean energy, put an end to the sale of polluting cars.

An analysis of the Glasgow pacts concludes that, in the best of scenarios, the measures announced during the summit could limit global warming to between 2.4 or 1.8 degrees on average (about three tenths less than expected before this meeting). This progress, however, is far from the objective of limit global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees; the threshold from which, as the scientific community warns, the climate crisis will cause much more serious damage to people, wildlife and ecosystems.

Beyond Glasgow, in the last year there have been several legislative advances in climate matters. USA, the Senate has just approved its law against climate change. In Chilithe government of Gabriel Boric has also passed the first climate crisis legislation in its history. Spainfor its part, in the last year has approved its Law on Climate Change and Energy Transition, as well as a series of specific regulations for waste management and creation of “low emission zones”. Another of the great milestones of this year has been the creation of a ‘Citizen Assembly’ to devise measures against the climate crisis.

geopolitical turmoil

The counterpoint to this story is that, despite the achievements, the ‘geopolitical turbulence’ of the last year has slowed down much of these policies. As Henrique Faria explains, the application of many climate plans has been hampered by the social and economic consequences of the pandemic, the energy and raw materials crisis, the strengthening of far-right populism, and various international conflicts such as the War in Ukraine.

“All that violence, injustice and opportunism has very negative effects on environmental policies and climate action, which require unity, justice and coordinated actions at all levelsfrom regional to global”, comments the expert.

A recent report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IDDS) reveals that the vast majority of the countries that in Glasgow committed to end this year with public subsidies for the international exploitation of fossil fuels have not yet fulfilled their promise. In fact, the analysis warns, oil and gas consumption could be reinforced by geopolitical tensions with Russia.

a decade of struggle

Seen in perspective, beyond the political progress achieved in the last year, another of the great turning points in the fight against the climate crisis has been the citizenry itself. “Ten years ago there was still many people who did not believe in climate change. Now, luckily, there are fewer and fewer who deny the existence of this problem. And there is more and more social interest for promote environmental measures“, wields Vanessa Castán Broto, researcher at the University of Sheffield and author of the IPCC. “There is still a huge gap between what we are doing Y what we should do to deal with climate change, but at least there are more and more people who are aware”, adds the scientist.

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The takeoff of climate policies could count on two great movers. First, because many of the environmental goals coincide with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the 2030 Agenda. “The same factors that cause climate change also encourage social inequalities. Fighting for the environment also implies improving people’s lives, especially the most vulnerable groups”, adds Castán Broton. The other great ‘climate incentive’ could be the recovery funds because, at least on paper, governments have committed to investing them in favor of the ecological transition.

The scientific evidence is clear on which path we must take to avoid climate catastrophe. As pointed out by the last big report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global emissions must reach their peak before 2025 and drop by half before reaching 2030. In addition, it is urgent to promote policies to mitigate the impact of the climate crisis and adapt the planet to the advance of this phenomenon. “If we do nothing, in the next five or six years we could suffer irreversible damage in ecosystems,” comments Ramajo. “Every day of delay is a non-recoverable day“, ditch the scientist.