(completely revised and updated version of the March 3 announcement)
MOSCOW/Kyiv (dpa-AFX) – After a week of bloody fighting in Ukraine, Russia is continuing its war against the neighboring country despite the harsh sanctions imposed by the West. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov – also in view of the increasingly serious economic consequences of the western punitive measures – has spoken out and offered the West a dialogue. Just a tactic? Questions and answers on possible solutions to the conflict:
How does Russian President Vladimir Putin justify the war in Ukraine?
The Kremlin chief speaks of a “special military operation” to protect the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine. Last week he first recognized the Luhansk and Donetsk regions controlled by pro-Moscow troops as independent states and then sent soldiers. Putin justified the war of aggression condemned by the West by saying that he wanted to protect the people of Donbass from attacks by Ukrainian nationalists in the government troops. Putin always speaks of the “Kiev regime” in which neo-Nazis are in charge. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has Jewish roots and vehemently denies the allegations. Jewish institutions in the country emphasize that they support Zelenskyy.
The war that began in Donbass in 2014 escalated completely with the Russian attack. According to UN estimates, even before the invasion began, more than 14,000 people died, most of them in the breakaway territories.
What does the Kremlin boss want to achieve?
Not only French President Emmanuel Macron fears that Russia ultimately wants to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin always mentions several goals, above all the conflict in eastern Ukraine. People should be allowed to live their Russian language and culture and orthodox religion there – just like on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, annexed by Russia in violation of international law in 2014. During its advance, the Russian army also broke through a water blockade, with which the Ukraine wanted to virtually drain Crimea.
Another declared goal of Putin is the “demilitarization” of the country, which has been supplied with weapons and ammunition by the United States and other NATO countries since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Western military instructors also trained the soldiers. Putin’s spy chief Sergey Naryshkin said recently that Ukraine is the last barrier for Russia to ward off attacks from the West. However, NATO always emphasizes its defensive character. There is no evidence of a planned attack on nuclear power Russia.
The fact that Ukrainian government officials repeatedly considered restoring the status of a nuclear-weapon state also caused alarm in Moscow. President Zelenskyy was the first head of state to openly hint at this on the international stage in February. The parliamentary leadership, which he controls, has already prepared the relevant documents.
Ukraine has the technology and expertise to create nuclear weapons, Putin warned. In 1994, Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons in the Budapest Memorandum – in return, Russia guaranteed the country territorial integrity.
According to the Kremlin boss, he also wants to prevent “anti-Russian nationalists” in Kiev’s leadership from becoming a danger. The aim is “denazification”. Ever since the fall of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014, Moscow has been claiming that “Nazis” have seized power in Kyiv. In fact, there are radical right-wing volunteer battalions, some of which have now been integrated into the army. In elections, however, their candidates always received only a fraction of the votes. Many observers therefore regard Putin’s reasoning as a pretext to get many Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians behind him in the spirit of Soviet resistance to Hitler’s fascism.
How can the war be ended?
Putin categorically rejects NATO membership for Ukraine. In fact, one day after the start of the war, head of state Selenskyj showed himself willing to compromise on this point. “We’re not afraid to talk about our neutral status. We’re not in NATO,” said Zelenskyy last Friday. “But the main thing is: What security guarantees will we have? And which specific states are they giving?”
From the Russian point of view, a voluntary renunciation of NATO membership is a basic prerequisite for cessation of hostilities. As an example, Moscow refers to its neighbor Finland. For the neutral status, a 2019 Ukrainian constitutional amendment mandating NATO accession would have to be reversed by a two-thirds majority. Putin also demands that Ukraine recognize Crimea as part of Russia and the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
From the Ukrainian point of view – and from the point of view of the EU and the US – Russia must immediately end its attacks and withdraw its troops from Ukraine. Although Moscow always emphasizes that it is not attacking civilian targets and only attacking military objects with high-precision weapons, Western experts believe that numerous images and videos of destroyed residential areas and mountains of ruins contradict this depiction.
Will Ukraine respond to Russia’s demands for peace?
President Zelenskyy categorically rejects giving up Crimea and Donbass. In an olive-green military T-shirt, the 44-year-old is combative and calls for a “discussion among men” with Putin. Zelenskyj has to watch as large parts of his country are destroyed. According to Ukrainian figures, more than 2,000 civilians have been killed so far.
At the same time, the Ukrainian leadership is demonstratively optimistic. Hundreds of Russian military vehicles and dozens of planes and helicopters were destroyed. The Ukrainian armed forces had captured enough weapons and material that several armies could be equipped with them at the same time. And more than 10,000 Russian “invaders” have already been killed, Kyiv claims. The Ukrainian soldiers are celebrated as heroes.
Although the information cannot be independently verified, it seems hard to imagine that Zelenskyy will now largely respond to Putin’s demands in view of these announced successes. In addition, despite the threat of severe penalties, many people in Russia are taking to the streets against the war – thousands have been arrested.
The Kremlin emphasizes that the “special operation” is proceeding according to plan and wants to see the “demilitarization” through to the end, independently of the negotiations – so far there have been two rounds of talks in Belarus. According to the Kremlin, Putin threatened on Thursday that he would make further demands if Zelenskyj did not respond to the demands.
Will Russia occupy Ukraine?
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed Putin’s statements that Moscow was not planning an occupation regime in Kyiv. The Ukrainian people should decide for themselves how they want to live in the future. However, Moscow has made it clear that it wants to have a say in who is in charge. Lavrov stressed that all nationalities living in the country should be involved in this process. This is primarily aimed at the large Russian minority. In addition, there are hundreds of thousands of representatives of Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian minorities.
Some critics fear that Putin wants to break up Ukraine. Only recently did Putin emphasize that he sees Russians and Ukrainians as one people. Opponents accuse the 69-year-old of wanting to rebuild a Soviet empire. With Belarus, whose ruler Alexander Lukashenko is completely dependent on Putin, there is already a union state that could serve as a basis.
Experts currently do not consider an occupation to be likely. To do this, Putin would have to significantly increase the deployment of personnel and expect massive resistance from the population, including partisan actions. There are already videos of protest actions by the local population in many places occupied by Russia.
Putin always emphasizes that he is concerned with Donbass and Crimea, not with an occupation of Ukraine. By advancing now, however, he could intend to create bargaining chips. According to experts, his calculus could also be that the West could then gradually lift the massive sanctions if Russian troops withdrew – as was intended for a solution to the conflict in Donbass.
Putin has unleashed war fears across Europe – why is he willing to pay the high price?
The head of the Kremlin has long emphasized the alleged danger to Russia that NATO expansion in Eastern Europe poses. He has urged the military alliance not to move any further towards Russia’s borders. Russia has repeatedly emphasized that NATO broke a corresponding promise made after the end of the Soviet Union. The extent to which this promise was actually given has not yet been clarified beyond doubt. NATO insists that each country can decide for itself which alliance to join.
In talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Macron, for example, Putin complained that the West was ignoring the security concerns of the nuclear power.
Russia also repeatedly cites a humanitarian emergency in the Donbass. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov accused Western diplomacy
– Germany and France mediated in the conflict – failure
in front. For eight years, journalists have also turned a blind eye to how the “Ukrainian regime” is killing people in Donbass. Most of the dead counted by the UN were in the separatist area.
The Kremlin accepts that hundreds of thousands in Ukraine are now fleeing from Putin’s tanks and bombs. Leading Russian politicians argue that the people of Donbass have lived in fear of war for eight years. But there is no evidence to support Putin’s claim that a “genocide” against Russians is taking place in the Russian-dominated region.
How can a solution to the conflict with the West look like?
Putin has long been demanding talks from NATO and the USA about a new security architecture in Europe. Foreign Minister Lavrov has now said that Russia is ready for a dialogue on peaceful coexistence – albeit on an equal footing. Russia frightened the West with a nuclear threat. In addition, more than a million war refugees from Ukraine have so far found safety in the EU. People could return to their homes if there is a peaceful solution. It remains to be seen how it will turn out in the end. Russia announced that it would have staying power. However, due to the massive sanctions, the pressure on the Russian economy is likely to increase./mau/DP/nas