In the Middle East, wars They know how they begin, but not how they end.. This is what is happening with the offensive that Israel has launched against Gazawhich runs the risk of spilling over to other countries in the region and unleashing an unprecedented escalation of war, given the passivity of the international community.
Day after day, the sources of tension increase without the United States or the European Union showing the slightest interest in pressuring Israel to end its disproportionate bombings and accept a ceasefire. Every hour that passes it is more evident that the objective of the Israeli Government is not to defeat Hamas or free the hostages, but to take advantage of the situation to destroy the Gaza Strip and push its population towards the Sinaias several of its ministers openly acknowledge.
Meanwhile, tensions are spreading throughout the region. Israel has killed senior leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah. In this way, the Netanyahu Government seems to be betting on the ‘the worse the better’ scenario, since it manages to shift the attention of the international community to other places, thereby buying time to reduce Gaza to ashes and evict its population, which suffers the greatest humanitarian catastrophe in its entire history.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration continues sending tons of weapons to its ally to complete the task while at the same time demanding restraint to prevent the death of civilians, a request that has been systematically ignored by the Israeli army, whose disproportionate attacks have already caused more than 30,000 deaths (if we add the 8,000 missing people buried under the rubble).
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Today, Washington’s main fear is represented by the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, through which 12% of world trade and 40% of trade between Europe and Asia passes. The Ansar Allah insurgent movement, also known as the Houthishas launched frequent attacks from the Yemeni coast against ships flying the Israeli flag or heading to the port of Eilat “as long as Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs,” which endangers free navigation in the Red Sea and, furthermore, , represents a threat to international trade.
The biggest risk is that the United States will be drawn into intervening militarily in Yemen to hit the Houthi movement. It seems evident that Iran and its regional satellites do not want to be involved in a head-on clash with Israel and have bet all their cards on an asymmetric war, in which they have a better chance of succeeding. The last thing President Biden needs in this election year is a new war that reveals, as those in Afghanistan and Iraq already did, the profound limitations of a declining power accustomed to winning wars due to its overwhelming military superiority, but also to lose the post-wars due to their reluctance to address the roots of the conflicts burning the region.