By striking a deal with Democrats, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has a last-minute deal shutdown averted. But it did not solve three major problems. The shutdown of the federal government was not remedied, but postponed. US support for war-plagued Ukraine has weakened. And his own position as chairman hangs by a thread.
Just hours before the midnight deadline for securing federal funding, both the House and Senate approved a temporary measure on Saturday to keep things open for a month and a half. This prevents hundreds of thousands of civil servants from having to stop work immediately and millions of soldiers from no longer being paid. A structural solution must be found before November 17.
The compromise came after days of chaos in the House. The Republicans have a narrow majority there (221 of 435 seats) and can block legislation and budgets from President Joe Biden. But Chairman McCarthy failed to reach agreement within his own group on alternatives to government spending. He publicly lost vote after vote by rebel party members who drastically cut the federal budget and demanded an end to aid to Ukraine. A varying group of twelve to twenty far-right Trump loyalists refused every drop of water.
On Saturday, McCarthy stopped trying to satisfy them and, with Democratic help, pushed through an interim solution that leaves Biden’s budget intact, except for US aid to Ukraine. This must now be voted on separately.
Job at stake
President Biden welcomed the deal, which would have created “an unnecessary crisis that would have caused needless suffering to millions of hardworking Americans.” He said he expects the Speaker of the House to “keep his promise to the people of Ukraine and ensure that the country gets the help it needs at this critical time.”
Squabbles in Washington now also threaten Ukraine
More than a year before the presidential elections and the re-election race for all representatives, Republican support for Ukraine is eroding. In the spring of 2022, 59 Republicans voted against supporting Ukrainian defense against the Russian invasion. Earlier this year that number rose to 70. During a vote last week, the majority of the Republican bloc was against: 117 members. The Democrats, who dominate the Senate, ensure that political support remains sufficient for the time being. But that now seems to depend on the election results in November 2024.
More acute than the aid to Ukraine, McCarthy has put his own job at risk. Ever since he struggled to become House Speaker in January, Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida has been threatening him with a vote of no confidence. The question is whether McCarthy also stipulated in his last minute deal with the Democrats on Saturday that they would protect him during a vote on such a motion. There was already little love for McCarthy within the Democratic Party, but that has dwindled even further since he launched an impeachment investigation into President Biden two weeks ago.
McCarthy himself said Saturday. “If anyone wants to file a motion against me, bring it on.” As with his actions in recent days, this could be strategy, bluff or desperation.