In this town in Donbas, the Kremlin is at stake to be or not to be in war, but its fall would not constitute a catastrophic scenario for kyiv
“The liberation of Artemovsk continues; the city is an important defensive center for Ukrainian troops in Donbas; gaining control of it will allow further offensive actions to be carried out already inside Ukrainian lines.” In just two sentences, pronounced this Tuesday to a russian tv channelthe defense minister, Sergei Shoiguhas summarized the transcendental dilemma facing his country in the fierce battle of bakhmutconverted, in the words of military experts and observers, into “a meat mincerdue to the high losses registered.
Using the old Soviet name of the town, and disregarding even its Ukrainian equivalent –artemivsk– The person in charge has admitted, almost unintentionally and through the back door, that Russia is almost risking being or not being in the war. For the Ukrainian side, however, the situation seems to be less dramatic, being able to allow a withdrawal, without their position on the battlefield be significantly diminished, analysts agree.
1. Without Bakhmut, there is no Donbas for the Kremlin
“The capture of Bakhmut is necessary but not sufficient for Russia to make further progress in the Donetsk province.” The daily report prepared by the Institute for the Study of War, (ISW) is blunt on this. If the Kremlin troops do not manage to occupy the city and expel the Ukrainian troops, they can already forget about making the complete conquest of Donbas a reality, a region formed by the aforementioned province of Donetsk and its neighbor, Lugansk, whose capture was established as the main objective. by President Vladimir Putin in April, just over a month after the invasion began, after the blitzkrieg failed to bring down the government of President Volodimir Zelenski in a few days.
Bakhmut is a ‘sine qua non’ for the Kremlin. But its conquest does not guarantee anything to the occupying forces either. “If they achieve their immediate objective, an open field does not await them, but a new defensive line for the Ukrainian forces, and new fierce battles for months to continue advancing,” he explained to El Periódico de Catalunya, from the Prensa Ibérica group, Mikhailo Samusformer Ukrainian military officer at the head of New Geopolitics Research Networka platform specialized in military issues and analysis.
An assessment corroborated by david lewisProfessor of Global Politics at the university of exeter and an expert in international security and authoritarianism, who stresses that under no circumstances is there an imminent threat to the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, more populated and located half an hour away by car. “Can (Russia) get achievements like the conquest of bakhmut at a high cost; but it will be much more difficult to conquer the rest of the Donetsk province, including the heavily fortified positions of Sloviansk and Donetsk“, corroborates in an email.
2. Russia, as in the First World War
“Russia is not carrying out military operations; a military operation is not launching to the front thousands of men and try advance without the hope of advantages that significantly change the reality on the ground; Acting like this, the Kremlin, in reality, what it is proposing are big battles like during the First World War”. The expert Samus points out that this bloody and terrible battle of Bakhmut is putting on the table a reality already identified by military experts since the first stages of the conflict, that is, the outdated military tactics of the Russian commanders, incapable of understanding how to carry out a war “during the 21st century”. “Not even having control of the airspace, we can’t even draw parallels with the Second World War“, keep going.
In those places where Russia did aspire to an advantageous strategic position, such as in Vuhledar, on the so-called southern front, a circumstance that would help Russian troops to expand and make the attack less vulnerable. land runner linking Crimea to Donbas, the Kremlin has reaped a spectacular disaster. The 155 Naval Infantry Brigade has been completely destroyed, in addition to 130 armored vehicles, including almost one tank quarantine and a thousand soldiers.
3. kyiv hands out game
No one knows how long the battle of bakhmut, but what is clear is that it is Kiev who distributes the game, who, depending on its objectives and interests, says this is how far we have come and orders a partial or total withdrawal, or chooses to continue fighting to wear down the enemy in a scenario that is also favorable. ·”No one knows how long the battle of Bakhmut will last, time is not a variable in terms of military strategy; it is the objectives that Kiev may have, which we do not know at the moment”, recalls Samus. If the goal is wear down the enemythe “battle will last a long time”, if instead it is to limit the losses, “the battle will be shorter”, continues this Ukrainian military expert.
For now, and given that the city has not been completely surrounded by Russian forces and there is an open access route, the Ukrainian military commanders They have numerous assets and possibilities, ranging from holding positions to ordering the withdrawal to the new defensive line mounted on Chasiv Yara commuter town located about ten kilometers west of Bakhmut, undergoing a partial retreat to the western quarters of the city located behind the bakhmutovka river, forcing opponents to wear down in a bitter urban combat where, according to military tradition, the defending forces always start with an advantage.