I go down to get the bread, the newspapers, a melon, and on the way I notice a banner with the announcement of a concert that has already passed: “Twilight of the Gods” by Richard Wagner an epic opera inspired by a Nordic legend according to which a war between deities ends up bringing about the end of the world. I wish that billboard, swayed by the light morning breeze, was prophetic, a good omen, that the apocalyptic trumpets were announcing the end of the old Putinist truth. Wagner. This is the name of the mercenary militia of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man who has dared to challenge the monolithism of the Kremlin, that it has sent a column of trucks and tanks towards Moscow, that raises the specter of civil war.
If we speak with our pants off, we were expecting something like this, but, at the risk of being wrong again, I am very much afraid that Prigozhin’s rebellion will not go very far anytime soon. It is true that he commands 50,000 men, largely convicts who are promised pardon if they survive six months at the front, a powerful shock force, subject to ultra-strict discipline, which has undertaken some of the bloodiest operations in the Ukrainian war. , like the taking of Bakhmut. Among his ranks there is no room for desertion. But the paramilitary group lacks aviation, enough heavy artillery to subdue the diplodocus of the Russian Army.
divide and conquer
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From a petty criminal in Soviet times, Prigozhin went on to sell hot dogs, become a major caterer, and then rake in a considerable fortune after winning a bid as the main caterer for the Russian armed forces. It is not a pacifist dove with an olive branch in its beak, but a champion of redoubling the war effort, a hustler with sharp intelligence who has spent months confronting the Russian generals, the head of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and the incompetence of his ministry. It may be that the risky ordeal of him responds to the flight forward of someone who is known to be in the spotlight. Putin’s strategy to stay in power for more than two decades has been to divide and conquer among his creatures: behead yourselves, and I will reign over your corpses.
In any case, a hopeful and interesting fissure opens, the slow beginning of the end. Whether Prigozhin’s gamble succeeds or fails, as seems more plausible, Never before has the Putin regime shown its weaknesses so clearly. Popular support for dissent is still low. Everything will depend on the Russian elites, on the oligarchies, owners and ladies of the country, to whom the war does not benefit at all.