A remarkable campaign has been on display in the streets of Budapest for a few days now. Large posters with the text #StopRussiaNow show a photo from Amsterdam on the left: a cheerful cyclist with a happy dog on a bridge. On the right a photo from Boetsja: a dog looks away while rescuers zip up a body bag. ‘Walking the dog?’ is in Hungarian. Signed, Poland.
With this message, the country is going out all over Europe to confront people with the facts and to argue for tougher sanctions. At the same time, Hungary announces that it will not support an embargo on Russian oil under any circumstances, in response to the next sanction package to be discussed in Brussels.
It is striking for the separation of minds that seems to be unfolding in Central Europe since the Russian invasion, and therefore also for the political isolation of Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. While many countries in Central and Eastern Europe play a pioneering role in aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia (Poland and the Baltic countries first), Orbán is anything but cooperative.
Arms deliveries are not allowed to fly over Hungary, sanctions that endanger the supply of gas and oil to Hungary are a red line for Budapest, Russian war crimes are only marginally condemned. “For its neighbors in Central Europe and the EU as a whole, Hungary is losing credibility as a member of the European community,” Polish political analyst Veronika Jóźwiak wrote in an op-ed. The Financial Times†
cracks
Cracks have been developing for weeks in relations with Poland, Orbán’s main ally in conflicts with the European Commission for years. Jarosław Kaczyński, the most powerful politician in Poland, openly criticized Orbán in early April, stating that ‘we cannot work together as before if this continues’. And while Orbán continues to insist on the importance of relations with Poland, he made his first post-election state visit to the Pope rather than to Warsaw traditionally.
In addition to Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which are part of the so-called Visegrad group with Hungary, are also less and less inclined to cooperate with Orbán. That process has been going on for some time, but has been going at a rapid pace since the war. Other allies simply failed to win elections last month. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who imitated Orbán’s politics in recent years, suffered a sensitive defeat. And Marine Le Pen, who, like Orbán, is close to Russia, failed to win the French presidential election in the second round.
Whether the Polish government really leaves Orbán out in the cold when it comes down to it remains to be seen. Although they strongly disagree about Russia and the importance of NATO, both countries are fighting a similar battle with the European Commission. Poland’s energetic stance in the Ukraine war has not allayed concerns about the rule of law in the Commission. Whether the relationship between Hungary and Poland deteriorates further will depend on Orbán’s attitude in the coming period. So far it doesn’t bode well. In his own victory speech in April, Orbán boasted that his way of doing politics is the future of Europe. But in reality he is at an illiberal dinner where the guests leave the table one by one.