After economists such as Emmanuel Alvarez Agis (one of the assumptions crossed out by Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof even though he was his Deputy Minister of Economy), and Marina Dal Poggettothe charge of deputy minister of economy will fall on Gabriel Rubinstein.
private consultant frequented by both politicians and businessmen, who usually occupies the podium in the ranking of economists who survey the local market, as pointed out monthly by the Central Bank. And a frequent columnist for NEWSfor whom he wrote just a few weeks ago, his economic analysis of possible scenarios for the country.
There he mentioned some of the guidelines that surely takes as number two of Serge Massa, who appears as a political figure at the head of the new mega ministry, but is not an economist. In this sense, Gabriel Rubinstein listed the plan:
1) Effective reduction of the fiscal deficit. The announcements of cash control (single account) and freezing of vacancies in decentralized organizations, possible increase in collection due to real estate revaluation and increases in gas and electricity rates (the complex and possible to be judicialized rate segmentation), are not enough to convince , as to be calm that there will be less monetary issue due to the deficit, continuity of the agreement with the IMF, etc. A much more certain roadmap on the fiscal accounts would be needed, between now and the end of 2023.
two) Better act on the external front. More imports are being authorized and their financing requirements are relaxed. But that’s not enough. There are many doubts and many companies are forced to use their own dollars to import, which are valued at the MEP or CCL dollar. And many, even those who access the Single Free Exchange Market (MULC) with some fluency, in the face of uncertainty, sell their merchandise for the “celeste” dollar: half white (official), half blue. This must not continue like this. Much better, in an emergency, it would be to define payments to be made through the market called MULC (for the importation of all kinds of goods and services) and create a second market (something linked to the MEP), where the savings dollar can be made. , tourism, cards and, if necessary, consumption called sumptuary.
3) Consolidate the improvement in the peso market. In my opinion, the BCRA was right to buy bonds by issuing money. And then, given that this new issue ends up in the banks (because there are stocks), absorb that expansion by increasing the Leliq. In short, Treasury bonds (which remain as BCRA assets) go out of circulation and more Leliq go into circulation. It’s all state debt. If this had not been done, in the next auctions, given the very high interest rates (CER + 15% per year or even more), the Government would not have been able to place anything and without issuing pesos, it should have “reprofiled” the debt ( default). Then, surely, the CCL would have “blown” more, since many depositors would have been scared and withdrawn their funds to buy dollars.
4) Adequate income policies. Managing smoothness in price and salary indexation in this disorder is very difficult. But, if the Government is convinced that it will lower the fiscal deficit, and accordingly, it will reduce inflation, it should be very careful with the rise in wages, the dollar, and “care prices.”
by RN
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