In the previous round, HIFK knocked out Ilves in Tampere, but an even twist in terms of events is ahead on Monday evening.
HIFK claimed a 1–0 away win over Ilves from Ratina before Midsummer. Juha Tamminen / AOP
The most interesting game of the day
The most interesting match on Monday is the clash between HIFK, which is in financial difficulties, and Ilves, which is chasing a place in the upper final series. What makes the match interesting is that the teams met just in the previous round, when HIFK scored its opening win of the season away from home with a score of 1–0, even though Ilves was better in terms of play.
The opening win as well as the Finnish Cup’s stage win from PK-35 are apt to raise the self-confidence that was in low oxygen. In the last two matches, the ball-making has not improved in any way. Breaking through in the attacking third and creating quality positions has been challenging in the league.
At the same time, Alakerta has been giving – the grouping has not been able to stay close. This is quite a challenge in itself, as Röda plays from underdog footy, where the 3-5-2 formation plays from a low block and tries to fight for every loose ball.
Beto is good with paint, but also prone to dents. At the same time, Lusitani has taken big goals, like last time against Ilves in extra time. The head coach Mixu Paatelainen is on the sidelines due to the trustee ban.
The previous HIFK loss broke Ilves’ four-game unbeaten streak. Ilves has been lucky in the opening third of the season, because the points balance has accumulated more than it would have deserved in light of the goal expectations.
Ilves can play midfield in different formations and also adapts to the opponent. If, like the previous match, the team continues in the 4–3–3 formation, we will see a lot of moves and crosses from the wing lanes.
This doesn’t necessarily work that well against HIFK, so it’s possible that Toni Kallio modify the approach so that breakouts can also be performed with midfield combinations.
Of the attack Patrick Loa Loa and Jorn Vancamp are injured, from the midfield on the other hand Teemu Jäntti. Yusif Moussan playing is uncertain.
Basically, HIFK has the ball a little less and invests in defensive play. Ilves should be able to play more effectively with the ball, but compared to the previous meeting, they need to get more quality in the finishing.
The people of Tampere are two classes ahead of the hosts in terms of material. It’s interesting to see how well HIFK has gotten fans moving, as they have now tried to sell tickets in advance.
Of course, this doesn’t really matter for the home advantage, because Röda’s fan base Klacken is already the best in the series and they create an atmosphere for the games.
Taosero eats away at the importance of home advantage, so Ilves rises to the favorite position of 43 percent in Töölö as well. For HIFK’s victory, I clock 28 points and for tasur 29 points. Tasur’s probability increases with the expected goal of the match – the expected goal value remains around 2.45.
With these estimates, HIFK will remain without a hit once out of three, the most likely final results are 1–1, 0–1 and 0–0.
We will come back to the pull ideas below. The match starts at 18:30.
The best betting tip of the day
Even though TPS’s lack of goals is glaring and the first team would have Tepsi’s game on Monday, the best bet of the day can already be found in the Veikkausliiga match analyzed above.
In relation to TPS, of course, the opponent KTP is also taken into account, which is one of the best in its league at the attacking end, and therefore the under-goal bets are allowed to remain this time.
Veikkaus offers HIFK tasty odds. In general, the market has reacted clearly after the last encounter, because in the light of the odds, according to the bookmakers, Ilves has now unexpectedly improved by about a grade – or alternatively, HIFK has deteriorated.
Of course, it’s always worth making a move to the ranking and certainly in both directions, but it seems that a little overreaction has now been seen.
For HIFK’s win, you get a coefficient of 3.75, for which Arvioni has already mentioned 28 percent. You can put a thin game on the underdog with these estimates, but there are always better options available through handicaps.
For some reason, the dnb bet is not available, at least at the time of writing, but in the Asians +0.25 with a coefficient of 2.08 is an over-multiplier, while my estimate for the event is exactly 50 percent. An investment target for a small stake is thus available, but until it becomes an official tip, I will not raise this.
Games of the day: No game.
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