• VanEck predicts strong growth for Ethereum
• Bullish: Ethereum could be worth $51,000 by 2030
• SEC hostility is a major problem for the crypto market
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VanEck Report: Bullish Forecast for Ethereum
Investment management firm VanEck published its adjusted forecasts for cryptocurrency Ethereum in a May 2023 report. Part of the report are three different predictions for the performance of the second largest cybercurrency by market cap. “In light of the recent Ethereum hard fork, which allows users to withdraw staked ETH and which we believe creates a key new competitor to US T-Bills, we have revised our Ethereum estimates with a more stringent valuation model,” explain the authors of the report, Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush.
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For example, VanEck’s “baseline target” for 2030 is an increase in network revenue from $2.6 billion to $51 billion. Analysts have put the implied price of a coin at around $11,800 in 2030, assuming that Ethereum will capture a 70 percent market share of all smart contract protocols. “We base these estimates on the thesis that Ethereum will become the world’s dominant open-source settlement network, uniting substantial parts of the business activities of the industries that have the greatest potential for profit by shifting their business functions to public blockchains,” said VanEck.
Bearish & bullish forecast
Nevertheless, the experts warn that there could be other, albeit less likely, scenarios in addition to the baseline target. For example, the bearish forecast for Ethereum is that network revenue will be around $2.5 billion in 20230. In this scenario, the price of a coin is just 343 US dollars. The bullish forecast for the cryptocurrency around 2030 sees network revenues of around 136.7 billion US dollars and a coin value of around 51,000 US dollars.
Biggest hurdle for crypto
As Sigel explains in an interview with Bankless, one of the biggest hurdles facing the crypto market is “the hostility of the SEC”. As a result, institutional investors such as wirehouses, brokers and independent advisors do not invest in crypto because they cannot. “Because the SEC is hostile to this space and has proposed rules specific to custody of digital assets that make it impossible for a retail bank to offer crypto projects,” Sigel said. Although this problem also applies globally, it is particularly so in the USA.
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