Starting this fall, The fight against climate change faces a crucial twelve months. It is the time frame in which a series of elections will be held on both sides of the Atlantic that will define the path that the West—the largest historical emitter and region with one of the higher emissions rates per capita— prepare to face a crisis whose consequences continue to increase. The three actors involved in this crossroads are United Kingdom, the European Union and the United Statesand the signals coming from London, Brussels and Washington are not encouraging.
The most worrying signs come from Downing Street. There the conservative prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who already came into office weakened and now has the polls against him, as his party is 15 points behind the Labor Party, has just announced a battery of measures that contradict the commitments acquired by the United Kingdom within the framework of the Paris Agreement. Until a few years ago, the country was a champion of the energy transition, and Parliament had not trembled when it came to approving innovative legislation that would push the private sector, particularly the automotive sector, towards a scenario of drastic reduction in emissions. This was required by the country’s commitment to achieving the net zero emissions by 2050. But Sunak, who came to power without winning a national election, believes that backing down can give him political benefits and make him win. legislative elections that must be held before January 2025.
A few weeks ago he declared with great fanfare that, although the world has experienced your warmest summer ever, it cannot be the British taxpayer who pays for the energy transition. He announced that postpones the end of gasoline and diesel cars for five years, reduces environmental standards for domestic heat pumps and halts any new restrictions on air travel. Your Minister of the Interior, Suella Bravemanhe justified it like this before the BBC: “We are not going to save the planet by ruining the British” . Sunak went further and, ignoring the historic emissions that the United Kingdom has accumulated since its Industrial Revolution, borrowed the arguments of climate deniers: “If our share of global emissions is less than 1%, how can it be correct?” that British citizens have to sacrifice more than others? ” Days later, he approved the opening of a new oil field in the North Sea from which 300 million barrels of oil will be extracted from 2026-2027, when the Rosebank field enters the operational phase.
Protests over Europe’s step backwards and doubts in the US
Europe also retreats. The European Council (representing EU governments) has delayed the entry into force of the new environmental standards of the Euro 7 vehicle regulations. Has been a victory for the ultra-conservative Italian government of Giorgia Meloni, who has managed to mobilize several Eastern countries and France to prosper this measure that benefits the producers of combustion vehicles. The argument is the same as Sunak’s in the United Kingdom: you cannot put too much pressure on the lower and middle classes. There remains the hope that the European Parliament vote against the delay, although it seems unlikely, considering that it is an unpopular measure and that the elections to the European Parliament They are in June.
The last of the anticlimactic setbacks may be undertaken in the United States. President Joe Biden, who had emerged as a kind of climate hero after passing the Inflation Reduction Act, andThe largest financial boost to the green industry in the history of the country, is at the crossroads. With just over a year to go before the White House elections, it is not certain that his own party will support him for re-election. Now the unprecedented impeachment of the speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthywho despite being a Republican had allied himself on some strategic issues with Biden against the most ultra, pro-Trumpist and anti-climatic wing of his formation, may compromise the president’s ecological agenda.
Liquid gas
A litmus test will be the White House’s decision to approve or deny the Calcasieu Pass 2a mega liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal whose construction has been proposed in the Louisiana coast. This is a project that would strengthen the unprecedented rise of the United States as a supplier of LNG: in 2016 it barely exported it and now it is the largest exporter in the world, ahead of Russia and Qatar. The EU, which bought 56 billion cubic meters from it last year, is co-responsible for this.
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The United States, in fact, is becoming a headache for the energy transition, according to data published a few days ago by the environmental organization Oil Change International. The report points out that Almost a third of the oil and gas exploration planned in the world between now and 2050 corresponds to US interests . All this despite the fact that the International Energy Agency already said in 2021 that it was urgent to achieve the goal of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. stop the opening of new hydrocarbon deposits.
These dire signals have encouraged climate activists to take to the streets again. On the eve of the New York Climate Week, nails 70,000 People Occupy Midtown Manhattan in the March to End Fossil Fuels. The protests are still far from the historical ones of 2019, prior to the pandemic and at the height of the popularity of Greta Thunberg, But they are relevant and can be fundamental to mobilize the progressive electorate in the face of the series of crucial elections around the corner.