Not a day goes by without the Pentagon showing again on Twitter that the Ukrainian army can expect a new batch of weapons. On Monday, one of the 90 promised M777 howitzers was loaded onto a transport plane at March California Air Force Base. Cost per piece: about 2.5 million dollars.
In the state of Georgia, M113 armored vehicles were readied for departure for the battlefield in the Donbas. The Ukrainians get 200 from the US. New, the tracked vehicle costs about $300,000 each. And at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, crates of Javelin anti-tank missiles, worth $80 to $100 apiece, are stacked and loaded to shred Russian armor.
The costs are therefore rising for the US, Kyiv’s largest arms supplier. Since the invasion began, they have supplied $3.4 billion worth of missiles, ammunition, helicopters, artillery and other weaponry. If it is up to Biden, another 33 billion dollars will be released, including for new military and economic support.
Depleted stock
Part of this amount, more than 5 billion dollars, is intended to place new orders with the arms manufacturers to replenish American stocks. For example, the Ukrainians have been given 5,500 Javelins, about one-third of the American army’s arsenal. The 1,400 delivered Stinger surface-to-air missiles accounted for a quarter of the US stock.
In all, tens of thousands of missiles will have to be replaced that the US and Europe have rushed to destroy Russian tanks, planes and helicopters. The Western arms industry will also benefit in the longer term from the higher defense budgets expected in response to Russian aggression.
More and more European countries, including the Netherlands, want to comply with the NATO standard to spend 2 percent of the gross national product (GNP) on Defence. Germany alone has pledged to spend an additional $113 billion on the armed forces.
Record amount of weapons
Last year, a record $2.1 trillion was spent on combat aircraft, naval ships and tanks, among other things, and that record is expected to be broken again this year. The question is, however, whether the military industry will be able to cope with the increased demand in the future.
In the US, concerns in Congress are mounting about the depletion of Javelins and Stingers in particular. The US itself needs a certain number of these anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to be prepared for large-scale wars and conflicts, including with Russia and China. If the Ukraine war is going to be long and many more of these missiles will be needed, the Pentagon will be in big trouble.
Because like other industries, arms manufacturers are facing logistical problems as well as shortages of materials and personnel due to the pandemic. As a result, it will take years for the US to replenish its stock of Javelins and Stingers. For example, Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes, manufacturer of both rockets, had to admit last month that only a small amount of Stingers can be made this year.
Years of waiting
The company appears to have far too few parts and materials to replenish the American Stinger stock. The production of the surface-to-air missile was already on the back burner because the US last placed an order eighteen years ago. The sanctions against Russia also affect Raytheon and defense giant Lockheed Martin, co-manufacturer of the Javelin.
For example, they have to find a new supplier for titanium, which is widely used in the military and aerospace industries. Russia is one of the largest producers. “We’re going to ramp up production this year,” Hayes promised recently. “But I expect we won’t be able to start processing orders for both the Stinger and Javelin until 2023 and 2024 to replenish American inventories.”
Other countries that want to place orders because of the good performance of the missiles in Ukraine, especially for the Javelin, will also have to be patient for years. Taiwan, which is already a customer, warned Tuesday that delivery of a batch of Stingers may be delayed this year. Production problems have forced the US to delay delivery of the state-of-the-art Paladin artillery system to Taiwan.
The Pentagon entered into a conclave with the largest weapons manufacturers last month to discuss the problems, but a solution does not appear to be forthcoming in the short term. Biden can invoke a special law that gives weapons manufacturers priority in obtaining certain resources and materials. But the president is in no rush to use the law.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin assured Congress on Tuesday that the Pentagon would keep stocks of key weapons from reaching dangerously low levels. “All of this should be a warning to us,” said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. “The extent to which Ukraine is now consuming critical ammunition should make us think whether our own war stocks of weapons and ammunition are sufficient.”