Tanks and armored vehicles are in the spotlight, but behind the scenes the conversation is about fighter jets. Perhaps air power can finally bring about a turnaround in the dragging war. Can the Netherlands supply jet fighters, such as the discarded Dutch F-16s? Analysts warn of snags.
Western strategists know all too well that you win a war with planes and helicopters
We don’t see much of it, but it’s there. Air power hardly seems to play a role in the Ukraine war, but according to Leiden Professor of Military Sciences Frans Osinga, also a former F-16 pilot, that is only an illusion. And the strategic importance is greater than all the clatter of weapons on the ground. “The air war is ongoing and it is most remarkable that Russia has not been able to win it. Russia’s failure to gain air superiority over Ukraine in the first three days of war has turned out to be an insane strategic factor.”
Western strategists know all too well that you win a war with planes and helicopters. A classic example was the Gulf War in Iraq in 1991: aircraft knocked out ground targets within two days, after which ground troops needed only a hundred hours to win.
“We thought: Russia does that too,” says Osinga. But it failed, partly due to inadequate training. A successful air campaign is devilishly complex, requiring fine orchestration of aircraft formations, radar, anti-aircraft defenses, all directed from an all-seeing command center on the ground.
After three days, Russia quickly scaled down the number of flights for fear of losing aircraft to Ukrainian air defenses. With no air superiority from either side, only the ground war remains: steel on steel in a drawn-out, bloody attrition. Because Russia does not look at a human life, it has a long-term advantage in that game. According to Osinga, it is therefore important for Ukraine to create an ‘asymmetry’, even if only temporarily, in order to achieve a breakthrough. Both parties have tried to do so in the past year, but in vain. F-16s could form such an asymmetry. For example, the aircraft have better radar than Ukrainian Sukhoi’s and are therefore better able to keep Russian aircraft at a distance.
But Ukraine is not there with planes alone
It is therefore not surprising that Ukraine is urgently asking the West for fighter jets. In itself, delivery is not too difficult, says defense expert Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies (HCCS) in The Hague. Ukraine wants to have about 30 fighter jets to supplement its own war-ravaged air force, he said. Defense in the Netherlands could supply a large number of these and the arrival of the F-35 will make F-16s available in more countries.
But Ukraine is not there with planes alone. As mentioned, successful aerial actions require sophisticated control from the ground. Ukraine does not have such a command center and will not have one, Wijninga expects. That is still manageable. “This war teaches that sometimes you have to make do with the resources you have and that sometimes you have to cut corners when you fight for the freedom of your country. And that is what Ukraine is doing.”
According to pilots, the F-16 is not a complex aircraft
But in addition to kites, complex logistics and many technicians are also required. “According to pilots, the F-16 is not a complex aircraft,” explains Wijninga. “It does take a lot of time to master the use of weapons and other systems.” Nevertheless, he counts on six to nine months of training time for both pilots and technicians. Adjustments to airports are also necessary to allow the aircraft to operate from Ukraine. Due to its low air intake, the F-16 is extremely sensitive to flying stones on runways. Picked up pebbles wreak havoc in the engine.
A smart exchange can be an alternative. Already much discussed is the option to resupply Polish MiGs to Ukraine. Their Air Force is already operating that aircraft; pilots and technicians know it like the back of their hand. The MiGs can be used for fire support to ground troops, the downing of Russian cruise missiles and reconnaissance. Poland could receive F-16s in exchange for their MiGs. For example the Dutch.
Fighter aircraft as a means of pressure
Even now that they are not there yet, fighter jets have influence. Namely as a means of pressure, says Leiden professor of international relations Rob de Wijk. He thinks that fast delivery of F-16s is not an issue, but that this veteran does play a role in the deterrence game. Russia knows full well that the West still has this heavy weapon up its sleeve. That fear may be keeping the Kremlin from escalating, for example by advancing further west beyond the Dnieper River. “This weapon is reserved for the moment when the battle enters a completely new phase,” says De Wijk.