Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened on Wednesday that Moscow’s conquest targets will not be limited to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine if the Americans deliver even heavier Himars missile systems to Ukraine than they do now. The progress of the Russian invasion had just been somewhat paralyzed. Lavrov does not know how much territory Russia wants to conquer.
While a ceasefire has certainly not been forthcoming, in recent weeks there has been reason to cautiously hope that President Vladimir Putin’s war goals could be limited to conquering the Donbas.
The invasion of Ukraine turns out to be taking an unexpectedly high toll on Russian troops, both in terms of casualties and combat effectiveness. Russia lost many troops and equipment in the capture of the Donbas cities of Luhansk and Lysychansk at the beginning of this month. The imminent full conquest of the Donbas could have been a logical moment to declare victory and thus limit losses.
Himars missile systems
In addition, the Russian forces are running into a new problem: the accurate Himars missile system. Twelve of these wheeled rocket launchers were delivered to Ukraine a month ago by the United States. They have a range of about 70 kilometers, allowing Ukraine to hit ammunition depots, command posts and other vital logistics locations far behind the lines. Twelve pieces is not enough for Ukraine to win the war, but they are a thorn in the side of the Russians.
Not surprisingly, then, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu on Monday ordered his troops in the Donbas to deal with those systems: “Destroy, with high priority, the long-range missiles and artillery deployed by the Ukrainian forces.”
On Wednesday, shortly after Lavrov’s announcement, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that four more Himars systems will be delivered. But the real risks for Russia lie with weapons with an even greater range: Himars systems with a range of 300 kilometers. The US refuses to deliver them, fearing Ukrainian bombing raids on Russian territory.