Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel, Ukraine specialist at the University of Groningen, gives his commentary on the war in Ukraine in this newspaper every Tuesday.
“Last week it was revealed that the Ukrainian army has pushed the Russians back at Kharkov. But in the meantime Mariupol has fallen into Russian hands after heavy fighting. The 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers and militiamen at the Azov steel plant have surrendered and must now appear before a tribunal, as a separatist leader of the two rebel republics has announced. It is partly a reaction to the Russian soldier who was sentenced to life in prison in Kiev yesterday.
Zelenksi announced that never before so many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in one day. It’s going to be tough. After the withdrawal from Kiev, it was expected that the Russians would now move en masse towards the Donbas. They have a strong presence there anyway, because they have had local feet on the ground since 2014.
‘Shevyerodonetsk one of the last major strongholds in the Donbas’
The goal of the Russians is to take full control of the Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. At the moment, Shevyerodonetsk in particular is under heavy fire. This strategically located town on the Severski Donets River is one of the last major strongholds in the Donbas not yet occupied by the Russians. Once you’ve conquered that city, you can easily cross the river and take the last part of the province as well. If the Russians succeed, then Putin can sell at home that he has achieved something. Not only that, but he also has a land bridge to Crimea.
‘The actions of the Russians are unpredictable for me’
The big question, of course, is what the Russians will do once they get their hands on the Donbas. On my tongue are the words of Winston Churchill, who once said, “The actions of the Russians are unpredictable to me.” It will be interesting to see if they then go further or stop and announce to the home front that the military operation has been successful.
But of course it’s not over yet.”