There is a “realistic possibility” that Ukraine will break through Russian lines by the end of this year. A top executive of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said this in a rare interview with the magazine ‘The Economist’. Trent Maul made the statement after the successes that Ukrainian troops have achieved on the battlefield in recent weeks.
After three months of painfully slow progress, Ukraine managed to break through the first – and probably toughest – Russian defense line near the southern village of Robotyne. John Kirby, a White House spokesman, even said last week that Ukrainian forces had also had “some success” against the Russians’ second line of defense.
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“Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been a little more pessimistic,” Maul said in ‘The Economist’. “A breakthrough on that second defense belt… is actually quite conceivable.”
Autumn
Maul even believes there is a “realistic possibility” – in intelligence terms a 40 to 50 percent probability – that Ukraine will break through all Russian lines (three in total) by the end of the year. At the same time, he insists that it will be “extremely difficult” and that it will depend on two important things: Ukraine’s ammunition supply – which is crucial for the artillery units ensuring the advance – and the weather in the autumn .
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If it doesn’t work out this year, it’s not lost yet according to the DIA. If Ukraine can build its momentum around Robotyne, hold its ground on the battlefield and secure its ammunition supplies, the country will be well placed for a potential new breakthrough in 2024, it said.
Third line
The CEO admits that Ukraine and the United States have misjudged the strength of Russia’s defense lines and how difficult it would be for Ukraine to break through with armored vehicles. Maul also warns not to underestimate the third line.
The bright spot is that the two figures responsible for Russia’s greatest success in the past year have disappeared from the scene: General Sergei Surovikin (who built the defense lines) was fired and Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said that the US sees progress in the counter-offensive, as did NATO CEO Jens Stoltenberg.
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