The Ukrainian army does not think about toning down the blitzkrieg against the Russians in the northeast. Units in Australian and British armored vehicles, supported by Polish and American howitzers, among others, are advancing towards the Russian border.
“Thank you Australia,” Ukrainian paratroopers from the 80th Airmobile Brigade shouted in liberated territory on Monday from their Bushmaster, one of the armored infantry vehicles that Australia has supplied. “It traveled halfway around the world, 19,300 kilometers across the Indian Ocean, for the protection of freedom,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksi Reznikov tweeted over the video of the happy soldiers. “Partly thanks to the Bushmaster, the Ukrainian army reached the Oskil River and continues to liberate the area in the Kharkiv region.”
As the Ukrainians and the world watch in amazement as the army continues to conquer village after village, the question arises of Kyiv’s strategy. The US warned the Ukrainian military, it was leaked early this month, to act with caution if it went on a counterattack. So not a major offensive in both Kharkiv and southern Kherson, which Kyiv initially wanted.
Long supply lines
Such a large operation carries the risk, among other things, that the supply lines become too long. Because the army can advance if everything goes smoothly, but does it have enough ammunition, food and petrol to keep up the offensive? And will the personnel losses not be too great?
‘Every army wins or loses because of its logistics,’ says Brigadier General Ruud Vermeulen, former battalion commander of the Dutch Airmobile Brigade. “The front Ukrainian units are now advancing as quickly as possible because they want to take advantage of the momentum. And they use a lot of ammunition. The logistics chain must follow suit. Otherwise, after three days you will really stand still and you will have no petrol and bullets. The coming days will show whether the Ukrainians will have their logistics in order if they continue to push through.’
For the time being, it does not appear that Kyiv and the Ukrainian army command want to weaken the successful offensive at Kharkiv. The motto, it seems, is to make the most of the chaos among the Russian units. Many fleeing soldiers have crossed the border into Russia, according to American intelligence. Moscow will soon have to send reinforcements to the area to stop the Ukrainian army. The Oskil River provides an opportunity for the Russians to stop the Ukrainian advance.
For the sake of protecting Freedom, it traveled half the world, from the to the ??. 19,300 km across the Indian Ocean.
Sept2022.Thanks to “Bushmaster” #UAarmy came to the Oskil river & continue to liberate Kharkiv region.
Thank you to @RichardMarlesMP @AmbVasyl & all ?? people pic.twitter.com/UnI0cSbAUu— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) September 11, 2022
Tipping moment
How quickly the Russians can regroup will determine how much territory the Ukrainians can still take. Moscow must act quickly but at the same time cautiously. In recent months, combat units from the Kharkiv region have been directed south as the major Ukrainian counter-offensive at Kherson was believed to be underway. Sending those units back now increases the risk of weakening the front lines at Kherson. The same threatens to happen in the Donbas if troops are withdrawn from there.
Ukraine would be mad if it didn’t take advantage of the Russian disarray and maintain the momentum in the battle, argues Vermeulen. As a senior staff officer, among others in the last Dutch 1st Division, he was responsible for planning these kinds of large army operations. ‘The chaos among the Russians in this region is now complete’, argues Vermeulen. ‘This is a tipping point, you have to exploit it. If you’re facing an army in a region that is collapsing and you don’t take advantage of it quickly, you’re doing it wrong. They must now persevere.’
Mobilization troops
The former brigadier general acknowledges that the danger increases as the Ukrainians advance further that the Russian army will try to attack them in the flanks after a regrouping. The risk in an offensive fight, he emphasizes, is always that you will be attacked on your flanks.
Vermeulen: ‘Such an enemy attack is the most dangerous. The Ukrainian army can then be cut off. But you must prepare well, have combat-ready units to carry out such a flank attack. My guess is, given the events of the past few days, that the Russians don’t have enough reserve units for such a large operation and certainly not at that location.’
In view of the military personnel problems that came to light in the past six months, the Kremlin cannot escape a general mobilization, according to Vermeulen. Only then would the army have enough soldiers and units to turn the war in yet another direction. However, President Putin has so far refused such a mobilization because it would meet too much resistance in Russia. It would also send a signal that the Russian military in Ukraine is in serious trouble.
Vermeulen: ‘Operationally and tactically, Putin can no longer win in Ukraine. Unless he uses a tactical nuclear weapon, and thereby forces a political solution, or proceeds to mobilization. From a military point of view, he cannot continue in this way. Ukraine is getting stronger. This is a tough fight for the Russians. Putin is strategically stuck, he needs a game changer.’