In anticipation of the final results of the US Congressional elections, and thus of the political balance of power in Washington for the next two years, one thing is already clear: the Republican Party faces a difficult choice. Will she continue to follow the man who opened up a new, large electorate for her, but who also arouses unprecedented enthusiasm among her opponents? Or will she say goodbye to former President Donald Trump – with all the associated risks?
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Tuesday night’s cool numbers—surprisingly compared to preliminary polls—should lead Republicans to conclude that the roaring populist adventure with Trump has reached its limit. The unlikely outsiders who won the Republican primary with his support, too often lost out to moderate Democrats in Tuesday’s general election. Notable candidates like TV doctor Mehmet Oz or former Colonel Doug Mastriano, respectively, for the Pennsylvania Senate and Governor, or Tim Michels and Tudor Dixon, Wisconsin and Michigan governor candidates, respectively, lost their races. At the end of the night, the relations were not yet clear in Arizona and Nevada, where ‘Trumps’ candidates can still win.
One of the most famous Trump-backed politicians, JD Vance, won the Ohio Senate race. Significantly, in his victory speech, Vance, author of the hit book Hillbilly Elegy, thanked 34 named people, but the former president was not among them. May have been revenge for Trump’s recent prank on him at an election rally. There he described Vance as a “butt-licker”. It could also be that Vance, 38 years young, was anticipating the Trump-less future.
This was the conclusion that White House reporter Jacqui Heinrich of Fox News wrote from a “Republican source”: “If we didn’t know already, we know now: we have a Trump problem.” Trump himself thought it was an “interesting evening,” he told reporters who came to visit him at his golf resort in Mar-A-Lago, Florida.
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To compound the dilemma, Trump’s main rival within the Republican Party, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, won his re-election with playful ease. In its wake, Florida, a traditional swing state, a solid-red state. DeSantis, who has a libertarian economic policy (no state income taxes) and is a culturally viciously anti-progressive, definitively established himself on Tuesday as a Republican leader who can also help fellow party members win, and as a serious challenger to Trump in the presidential election. from 2024.
It’s no coincidence that Trump, in an interview with Fox News on election day, warned DeSantis not to challenge him in 2024: “I think he could cut himself badly if he ran,” Trump said. “It’s not good for the party.” At an election rally in Ohio Monday, the former president said he will make a “very big announcement” next Tuesday. This is widely interpreted as an allusion to his candidacy for 2024.
Above expectations
Does bad news for Trump mean good news for President Biden? The Democrats thought so. They pointed to previous Congressional elections halfway through a presidential term. Republicans lost 40 seats in 2018, when Trump was president. The Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, with Barack Obama in the White House. Such shifts were predicted in advance, but it is already clear that there is no question of a ‘red wave’. “Democrats are performing beyond expectations,” Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday night.
It was widely predicted that high inflation would antagonize voters against Biden. This was also reflected in the first exit polls on Tuesday evening. Economy and inflation were the main themes for the polled voters. Abortion, an issue that came on the agenda after a conservative majority in the Supreme Court lifted its national protections this spring, was considered much less important, according to pollsters.
In a few crucial states, the protection of the right to abortion seems to have been decisive
But in a few crucial states, the protection of the right to choose to have an abortion seems to have made the difference. In Pennsylvania, a state that Biden narrowly won two years ago, the Democrats won a double victory: John Fetterman won the Senate seat from the Republicans and Josh Shapiro the governorship.
Referendums on abortion were organized in some states. For example, voters in California, Michigan and Vermont decided that women’s right to choose to terminate pregnancy should be enshrined in the state constitution. In the conservative states of Kentucky and Montana, proposals to enshrine a ban on abortion were rejected. Earlier this happened in a referendum in the state of Kansas. It seems to confirm what polls showed earlier this year that the ruling of the conservative majority in the Supreme Court does not align with what a majority of Americans think.
Still, it’s too early for Democrats to cheer. They could still lose both their majority in the House and their favorable position in the Senate after the last counts. The chance that the Republicans will conquer the House is real, albeit with an impotently small majority. The undecided senate races are still very exciting. Chances are high that the Georgia race between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and his challenger Herschel Walker will not lead to a winner with more than 50 percent of the vote. Then, for the second time in two years, a runoff will be held in Georgia on December 6. The role of Donald Trump also becomes spicy. Political analysts suggested on TV that Walker had done surprisingly well “because the Republican Party has managed to keep Trump out of Georgia.”