Donald Trump was always determined to compete to return to the White House in 2024. His narcissism and megalomania logically push him to that after the humiliating defeat, which he still objects to, against Joe Biden in 2020. But even more, Trump needs to return to the power to ensure jail time: After two unprecedented impeachment trials, and amid multiple criminal investigations and civil trials, the former president is in trouble. And his best defense is the counterattack.
But Trump is unlikely to succeed. This is proven by his successive defeats in the House of Representatives, the Senate, the presidency and the mid-term results of last week. Too many Americans reject him no matter who is opposed to him. Americans, even Republican supporters, understand that Trumpism is a failed experience.
His views were put succinctly by Marc Thiessen, former White House spokesman: “Mr. President, it’s not in your best interest to run in 2024. If he does, he’s likely to lose. And he’ll destroy what’s left of your legacy in the process. Please don’t do it,” Thiessen pleaded.
Legacy? Many understand that Trump has none, apart from his impeachment trials and the January 6, 2021, takeover of the Capitol to prevent Biden from being recognized as president. He will never be remembered for much longer. Historians will perpetually rank him as one of the worst, if not the worst, in the presidential pantheon.
Trump can’t ruin a legacy he doesn’t have, but he could easily ruin something else: the Republican Party. That is why so many in the traditional space are finally alarmed. Even Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, that Fox News that was Trump’s political launching pad, is looking for an alternative.
And they hope Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will be that card. DeSantis is popular, and he won a victory that far exceeded anything Trump could achieve. But the problem is that the Republican Party has been partly infiltrated by a kind of cult (the far-right conspiracy theorists the former president gave a voice to).
A Republican pollster breaks down the party like this: 10 percent are “never Trumpers,” who have long despised Trump. Some 50 percent could be considered “casual Trumpists,” Republicans who voted for Trump twice but are burned out and want someone else. But 40 percent would be “loyal Trumpists,” split evenly between fans and fanatics.
And that 40 percent could be enough to win an internal race if the renewal vote splits. Former Vice President Mike Pence could perhaps take a few votes from him. Trump has already ignored him, assuring that he “is weak”, because he did the right thing on January 6, 2021, and has promised him revenge.
DeSantis could beat Trump heads-up. But to defeat Trump he is forced into a bloody fight, beating the former president on his ego to unleash his narcissistic, self-destructive and deranged rages. A spicy debate for which many believe that the governor has the stomach.
And nobody rushes DeSantis: he is 44 years old, he will be 48 when he completes the term he has just renewed. Why doesn’t he just sit back and wait? Even if DeSantis wins the 2024 nomination, he’ll end up with 40 percent “loyal Trumpists” hating him, making it difficult for him later in the national election.
The alternatives for the Republican Party are not good: another national defeat led by Trump or an intrapartisan civil war. Trump has already promised that if he is impeached, there will be “trouble in this country like we’ve never seen before.”
