Three days after the polls closed in the midterm legislative elections in the United States, and in the midst of the slow counting of votes that still keeps the result of several races in the air, and with it the composition of Congress, the democrats They gave this Friday a step more for renew control of the Senate with the re-election of Mark Kelly in Arizona. That control will be decided in Nevada or, if there is a Republican victory there, in the second round of the race for the Senate in Georgia, on December 6. In any case, the result of Arizona was the last straw in a glass that confirms that in these elections the Democrats have resisted better than expected and that the expected Republican tide did not come. The question since Tuesday is why and in the answer several decisive factors enter, but there is one that is considered fundamental: donald trump
Against the Republicans has played, without a doubt, the strong citizen mobilization in response to the decision of the Supreme Court to repeal the constitutional protection of the right to abortion. They have also weighed particular considerations depending on states and races. And there have been groups of voters who send the conservatives worrying signs about him narrowing their ways to victory in future elections. They continue to make significant progress given the demographic changes among Latinos, but with their agenda against gun control, culture wars that threaten racial groups and the LGTBQ community, and ignoring the climate emergency, they are falling further and further behind the Democrats in the young vote (and especially black and Latino youth vote).
In the poor results of these elections, however, there have also been other factors: the perception that there were numerous Republican candidates “of poor quality & rdquor;; the awareness that the most extremists they were going too far in their defense of conspiracy theories on non-existent electoral fraud and maintained and intensified the threat to the integrity of the electoral and democratic system; punishment to a match that in the last convulsive years there has been chickened out at the rise of that extreme wave within the formation. And in those the undeniable common thread it’s Trump.
60% unfavorable
Exit polls after the elections suggest that the unfavorable view of Trump among Americans it reaches 60% of voters, an even higher rate than that of President Joe Biden. Although some of the candidates standouts he had endorsed have won their races, many of the most ends they have suffered defeats that have robbed Republicans of state seats and offices that would have helped cement and expand their power, in Washington and locally. And among some of the most significant victories of these elections are those of governors with a conservative agenda but who do not scare moderate voters so much and who do not deny Trump in public but have generally kept him at a distance during the campaign.
That is why in recent days Trump has been defined as “the big loser”, a “ballast for the party & rdquor ;, “a burden“…And those qualifiers and the calls to step aside are coming from voices of the conservative political and media ecosystemincluding Rupert Murdoch’s Middle Three, FoxNews, ‘New York Post’ and ‘The Wall Street Journal’, that until now have been vital for it to settle as the most important and untouchable figure in the Republican Party.
Those and other voices are now calling on Trump to yield the witness to other leaders, and especially to the reelected governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, with clear presidential aspirations reinforced by his victory. Trump’s actions and messages since Tuesday, however, show that he is unwilling to heed such advice. And he is “furious” for criticism, but also convinced that it will come out intact of this apparent crisis and that he continues to be the leader of a party that under its domination has radicalized.
Trump maintains, for the Tuesday at nine at night at his club in Mar-a-Lago, the call for the “big announcement & rdquor; which is taken for granted that it will be the launch of his candidacy for the 2024 presidential elections. His fiercest war is being waged with DeSantis (whom he calls “DeSanturrón & rdquor; and has called“mediocre”, “ungrateful” and without “loyalty or class & rdquor;). He has also unleashed his wrath on Truth, his social network, against murdoch media and other potential rivals for that Republican nomination in which at the moment still clear favoritelike Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.
All your signs indicate that he will not let the party get away from his control, at least without one internecine fight that can take its toll to the formation. And she does it from a position of strength. The MAGA (‘Make America Great Again’) movement is still very much alive among basesto whom he is haranguing, framing the criticism he receives as part of the alleged persecution to that movement. And Trump also relies on precedents: both when he was a candidate in 2016 and the scandal broke out over the recording in which he spoke of “fuck by the pussy” to women as after the storming the capitol he was the subject of criticism from within the ranks of his own party. But they were short-lived.
Trump also remains a strength among many congressmen. And if control ends up being confirmed even by the minimum of the House of Representatives, a fierce internal war between factions of the party is already outlined. Already in the Senate, Republican voices propose postponing the vote on his leadership there. And another one is coming earthquake in the House of Representatives.
Until Tuesday Kevin McCarthy he seemed to be guaranteed the election to be Republican leader and ‘speaker’ if they win the majority, but in the last few hours members of the Freedom Caucus and other ultras are pressing for concessions and power and are threatening to lead a revolt. And from the circle closest to the former president, messages of pressure also reach him, such as the one sent in the purest Trumpist style by the adviser to the former president, Jason Miller: “McCarthy has to be much more assertive in their support of President Trump“, has said.
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