Barcelona goes to sleep this pending Friday of the pact that will decide how it is governed for the next four years. The city will have a new mayor this Saturday after five in the afternoon, the time at which the investiture plenary session begins. Before, in the morning, the militancy of together for Catalonia and CKD in Barcelona must validate an alliance closed by Xavier Trias and Ernest Maragall to share the government of the Catalan capital.
Because common sense and all the movements these days indicate that The clearest option is that Trias is once again, as happened from 2011 to 2015, who runs Barcelona, except for a hidden vote from Comuns and PP to Collboni. The two parties are negotiating against the clock the distribution of the government departments that will come out of that agreement. The Republicans maintain that they do not have to specify this distribution until the management areas are awarded when the portfolio is defined, during the month of July.
Logic suggests that two of the six tenures of mayor correspond to ERC by the proportion of the result of the municipal elections of May 28: Trias achieved 11 councilors and Maragall, five. But that is for now only one possible scenario.
The militancy
But the ERC militancy will not position itself on that distribution: it will have to decide whether to vote for Maragall or Trias at the investiture. For this, an extraordinary congress of the Barcelona federation of republicans is called, which will begin this Saturday at 10:30 a.m. and will be held behind closed doors. If there is an agreement, its main lines will be explained to those gathered and a vote will be taken on whether it is accepted. If that happens, ERC will vote for Trias. If there is no agreement, it will be addressed why it has not been possible and the party will vote for its own candidate, Maragall.
In parallel, the Junts per Catalunya federation in Barcelona will hold a telematic vote -you can participate from 8:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.- in which the militants will have to answer this question: “Do you trust Xavier Trias to negotiate and reach to an agreement in order to achieve a government of change, progress and well-being in the city of Barcelona with Ernest Maragall and ERC?”.
the alternative
Although Trias is the candidate who seems closest to winning the day, the Catalan capital has spent the hours leading up to the outcome with one eye on the other mayoral candidate with options, the socialist Jaume Collboni. In the Catalan capital, some detractors of Trias, and several of his defenders, were convinced that this alternative had cards to play and win.
It is not a simple operation, although it is not unfeasible either. Collboni needs a couple of planets to align to achieve the wand of command: that the nine councilors of Barcelona en Comú vote for him and that the four of the PP also do so, or at least two of them, which would reach or exceed the absolute majority, set at 21 councillors. To achieve this, it would prevent Trias from being named mayor as the most voted candidate, which happens if no other adds up to those 21 votes.
The independence front
In the last hours, the PSC has redoubled its pressure on the Comuns and the PP, in the sense of pointing out that if they do not vote for Collboni they will be making it possible for an “independence front”, in the words of the socialist, to govern Barcelona. The thesis of the one who has been a partner and first deputy mayor of Ada Colau during this term has been clear: if he is mayor, he will form a government with the Comuns, reversing the positions of the last four years. Those of Colau would thus be the junior partner.
mermaid has stressed from the outset that will only support the PSC if it has a guarantee that neither Colau nor any other representative of the Comuns they are part of the government that he would make possible with their votes. When asked if he would lower the veto and accept people from Barcelona en Comú in the local Executive if the mayoress steps aside, the popular has always said no.
always until this friday, when he has opened the door for Collboni to make him a proposal in which Colau does not appear and in which, although it is understood that there may be a representative of Barcelona en Comú, he is not in certain areas that he deems sensitive. Sirera specified in the morning that what he wants is for the Comuns to “take the hands of the councils that generate wealth in the city.” He even sent a letter to Collboni to warn him that he was unlocking his schedule in case he wanted to meet to talk about it.
free votes
The PSC insists that its priority is to achieve the nine votes of the Comuns. That he will not abide by Sirera’s veto. And that if he achieved the first, and thus added 19 votes, it would be the elected councilor of the PP who should decide if he makes Trias mayor or prevents an independentist from governing Barcelona. According to this vision, Sirera should give his votes for nothing.
On the other hand, Vox has two votes, but in principle it is not possible to speculate about it: the far-right party has assured that they will be for its head of the list, Gonzalo de Oro Pulido.
The pact of lefts
Meanwhile, the dead man who is already well buried is the project of an agreement between the PSC, Barcelona en Comú and ERC, the agreement for a left-wing government that would add 24 councillors. The three potential partners have not met.
ERC maintains that it has not been formally summoned; Barcelona en Comú, that the PSC refused to meet because Maragall asked that the first meeting be between him, Colau and Collboni, and the Socialists affirm that it is the Republicans who, through the mouth of Oriol Junqueras, have ruled out that option from the outset .
A precarious majority
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Trias can be elected with only the 11 votes of his own or with the 16 that he adds with ERC. In either of the two outcomes, the new government would have problems carrying out the voting in plenary. Probably as many as Ada Colau had in 2015, when she began her first term with 11 councilors. Trias himself had to find external support from 2011 to 2015, when he had 14 councilors.
A look at the plenary makes it difficult to assume what added allies Junts and ERC could find. Especially if the Republicans manage to impose a clause that prevents the PSC from joining that government later in this term. Something that could be considered after the general elections, because after the general elections everything seems easier: there is no risk of paying for it in the short term at the polls.