He started the weekend as Russia’s ultimate villain, was denounced as a ‘traitor’ by President Vladimir Putin on Saturday morning and disappeared like a thief in the night from Rostov after his uprising was called off. Yevgeny Prigozhin was supposed to leave for Belarus, but now seems to have to fear Putin’s wrath.
At the end of Monday afternoon, Prigozhin made his first appearance on Telegram. In a voice message, he stated that his revolt was in response to attempts by the military leadership to disband Wagner before July 1. “The purpose of the march was to prevent Wagner from being destroyed.” He also wanted to hold accountable those who he believes made mistakes in the war, but said he was not out to overthrow Putin’s government. Prigozhin states that the Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko “has reached out by looking for a way in which Wagner can legally continue to exist.”
His troops drove into a first line of defense that the National Guard had hurriedly erected on Saturday night. A battle for Moscow seemed imminent. And then Prigozhin called off the attack. According to sources from the independent Russian website Meduza, the Wagner boss already realized in the afternoon that he had overplayed his hand. Prigozhin himself tried to get in touch with Putin, “but the president would not talk to him.”
Way out
Prigozhin looked for a way out. His men met little resistance, but there was no mass defection of regular soldiers or internal order troops. Putin had made it known in his speech on the morning of the uprising that he had no intention of dropping the military leadership.
According to Meduza sources, the Kremlin saw that Prigozhin had changed his tone and that he wanted to negotiate to avoid bloodshed. But Prigozhin allegedly demanded that he make a deal with a head of state to save face, while Putin refused. And that’s where Aleksandr Lukashenko comes into play.
It is clear that this was not an initiative of the Belarusian dictator himself. Lukashenko is completely dependent on the Kremlin and would not step into the breach without an order from Moscow. Little is known about the deal that was reached, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Prigozhin would leave for Belarus and the criminal case for “armed mutiny” against him would be dropped.
Open border
Over the past three years, Belarus has rapidly transformed into a province of Russia, both politically and militarily. Moreover, the border between the two countries is wide open. The idea therefore seems absurd that Prigozhin will no longer interfere in the Russian power game in exile and that Moscow will leave him alone.
Although he did not mention him by name in his speech on Monday evening, President Putin does not seem forgiving towards Prigozhin. With that he made a turn compared to last weekend’s message. According to the Russian president, the “organizers of this uprising must understand that they will be brought to justice, this is criminal activity aimed at weakening the country.”
The future of Prigozhin’s private army is also uncertain. The Wagner boss announced that his men “turned their column around and returned to their encampments according to plan.” He probably meant the barracks of the mercenaries in the Donbas and in southern Russia.
While Putin clearly stated that the organizers of the uprisings must be brought to justice, he also said that most Wagner mercenaries are indeed “patriots”. According to him, they were “used” by the organizers. Putin also pointed the finger of blame at Kiev in his speech. Ukraine was “involved” in the Wagner uprising, he said. He calls it “an act of revenge for their failed counter-offensive.”
Wagner fighters who did not participate in the uprising could sign a contract with the Defense Ministry and thus join the regular army, Kremlin spokesman Peskov previously reported.
But it seems wishful thinking that mercenaries whose colleagues a day earlier followed Prigozhin’s order to occupy Rostov would now move over to the enemy. “These are former officers who left the Russian army for various reasons,” says Irina Borogan, investigative journalist and expert on the Russian secret services, in a Meduza podcast. “Either they didn’t like the army, or the money they earned there. And with a mercenary army, they got what they wanted.”
Not disarmed
The American Institute for the Study of War points out that Wagner fighters returned to their base with heavy military equipment. According to the think tank, the fact that the insurgents have not been disarmed may mean that the Kremlin wants to preserve Wagner in some way.
There are also voices about this in the Russian parliament. The head of the State Duma’s defense committee, Andrei Kartopolov, said there was no need to disband Wagner “because it is the most combat-ready unit in Russia.”
The question now is where Prigozhin is located and whether he can avoid prosecution. One thing seems certain: his role is played out.