Tough and crucial month for Ajax: this is what the coming weeks will look like

This month the Amsterdam team will play five matches, all against (traditionally) tough opponents. If Ajax manages to turn the tide, there is still plenty to be saved, but the season could also be over before the winter break.

We’ll start with the season so far. Ajax won the first match 4-1 against Heracles. That was also the only time three points were scored. After away games at Excelsior (2-2) and Fortuna Sittard (0-0) ended in a draw, they lost big times at FC Twente (3-1) and at home against Feyenoord (0-4). Meanwhile, the Europa League match against Marseille ended 3-3.

Due to the terrible results, Ajax is now 15th in the Premier League, just above the relegation zone. By the postponed catch-up match against Volendam and the unfinished match against RKC Waalwijk the position now gives a somewhat distorted picture. Because while almost all teams have seven games to their name, Ajax has only played five.

However, Ajax has already taken a big lead at the top of the competition. And yet there are still a lot of difficult matches to come.

Eredivisie and Europa League

The five matches scheduled this month are divided into three league matches and two group matches in the Europa League. In the competition, Ajax will host number two AZ next Sunday, and the following week the Amsterdam team will have to visit the traditionally difficult FC Utrecht – although that team is also in a slump at the moment. To end the month, the top match against PSV is scheduled to take place in Eindhoven.

The two European obligations are between the competition matches. Starting with an away match next Thursday against AEK Athens, the current number one in the group. Between Utrecht and PSV, Brighton & Hove Albion will visit the Johan Cruijff Arena.

Stay positive

You could see the next three league matches as the opportunity to catch up. Suppose Maurice Steijn’s team manages to turn the tide and suddenly win all the matches this month and also get three points in both catch-up matches, then a large part of the deficit can be made up.

In that ideal scenario, the team from Amsterdam will have 20 points from 10 games. And don’t forget, in that case PSV and AZ will miss out on three points at least in one match. This means that the people of Eindhoven and Alkmaar can have a maximum of 27 and 25 points respectively. The current gap of 16 points with PSV is then ‘only’ 7 points.

Twente and Feyenoord, both already with a victory against Ajax, may rise to 27 and 26 points respectively in the competition. But the pressure is somewhat increased from Ajax to the top four.

The future in the Europa League also looks a lot brighter with two possible victories. With 7 points from three games, Ajax would top the group, or have the same number of points as AEK. A wintering in Europe, as number three you continue in the Conference League, that seems to be in sight.

Different scenario

That ideal scenario is of course not obvious given the results of the past few weeks. A more obvious scenario doesn’t look too positive. If Ajax loses to both AZ and PSV, it can get a maximum of three points this month from FC Utrecht, which is currently below the relegation line.

In that case, the top 5 in the Premier League could be even further ahead of Ajax. Suppose PSV (which, in addition to Ajax, plays against Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard this month) continues to win everything, then that team has 30 points after 10 games.

Even if Ajax wins the catch-up games against RKC and Volendam, the gap with the Eindhoven team is already 16 points after 10 games. AZ (which has two points less), FC Twente (three points away from the lead) and Feyenoord (four points behind) can also open a big gap with a good month.

Program top 4

In addition to PSV, the other teams that are now in the top five also have a simpler Eredivisie program this month than Ajax. After the cracker against Ajax, AZ will still play home games against Heerenveen and NAC. Feyenoord plays against PEC Zwolle and Vitesse between the Champions League matches. Twente meets Fortuna and Heracles. Fortunately, a perfect score for both teams is not possible anyway, at the end of the month Twente and Feyenoord will play against each other.

Yet there are also stumbling blocks for these teams. PSV and Feyenoord will also play twice in the Champions League this month. PSV will take on Sevilla at home tonight and will play away to RC Lens later this month. Feyenoord travels to Madrid, where they play against Atlético tomorrow. Arne Slot’s team will host Lazio Roma later this month. AZ plays in the Conference League against Legia Warsaw and Aston Villa.

Of course, Ajax itself is also active in Europe. After the 3-3 in the Arena against Marseille, the away match against AEK Athens awaits next Thursday. The Greeks surprisingly won against group favorite Brighton in the first round. A defeat would also cause Ajax to get into trouble in the Europa League.