Top US politician Pelosi arrives in Taiwan for sensitive and risky visit

Shortly after setting foot on Taiwanese soil, Pelosi tweeted that her visit should highlight the US commitment “to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.” That support is now more important than ever, she says, because ‘the world is faced with a choice between autocracy and democracy’.

In the same statement Pelosi reiterates that US Congressional delegations have made frequent trips to Taiwan and that the visit “does not contradict in any way the long-standing United States policy,” the so-called One China Policy. But the question is how China will respond to her visit.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned on Tuesday that US politicians who “play with fire” when it comes to Taiwan “will achieve nothing good.” Chinese warplanes and warships are said to have flown and sailed past the unofficial border through the Taiwan Strait on Monday and Tuesday. Images of military vehicles in the city of Xiamen, on the Chinese side of the strait, surfaced on Chinese social media.

Fervent critic

In recent days, there have been many rumors that Pelosi would also make a stop in Taiwan during her tour of East and Southeast Asia. She has long been a staunch critic of the Chinese Communist Party and has supported pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in recent years.

In 1991, during an official visit to China, she and two other Congressmen held a brief memorial in Tiananmen Square for protesters who had been killed two years earlier by government violence. Nearly a third of her San Francisco constituency is Asian-American, most of whom have little affinity for the Chinese government.

Pelosi’s plane took an unusual route from Kuala Lumpur to Taipei on Tuesday. Instead of using the shortest route over the South China Sea, the aircraft flew over the Indonesian islands of Borneo and Sulawesi and along the east coast of the Philippines. China lays claim to large parts of the South China Sea and the Chinese navy is conducting large-scale exercises there between Tuesday and Saturday.

Warm welcome

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday it had a full overview of military activities around the island and would send troops appropriately in the event of “enemy threats.” According to local media, hundreds of police officers are on hand in Taipei to ensure that the visit runs smoothly.

The Taiwanese government has so far been silent about the possible visit. President Tsai Ing-wen declined to answer questions about it. Its Prime Minister, Su Tseng-chang, expressed only gratitude for Pelosi’s support for Taiwan over the years, saying that friendly foreign guests will be given a “warm welcome.”

Experts suspect that the Taiwanese do not want to give the impression that Pelosi’s visit is taking place at their request. This could inflict the wrath of China on the island, which is now mainly targeting Washington. At the same time, Taiwan is also heavily dependent on support from the US, so it doesn’t want to be too distant.

clatter of arms

According to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, in response to the visit, Beijing could launch missiles near Taiwan, conduct large-scale exercises by the Chinese air force and navy, or make new “false legal claims” such as that the Taiwan Strait cannot falls under international waters. “We won’t fall for this or get involved in weapons clatter,” Kirby said. “At the same time, let’s not be intimidated.”

Pelosi’s visit is sensitive in China, as it would be inconsistent with the US’s One China policy. That policy means that the United States recognizes the People’s Republic of China, led by the Communist Party, as the sole legal representative of China, and assumes that the Chinese consider Taiwan as their territory. In China, that policy is often interpreted as if the US recognizes the Chinese claim to Taiwan, but that is not the case.

Since the 1970s, the One China policy has allowed closer US-China relations, while not requiring the US to completely withdraw its support for Taiwan. For example, the Americans are still legally obliged to allow Taiwan to defend itself against Chinese aggression, and there are American diplomatic representatives in Taiwan and vice versa.

The arrival of American dignitaries to Taiwan threatens to upset this delicate balance. Pelosi is not the least: as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, she is second in line after Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed President Biden in the event of a calamity. But as a Congresswoman, she is not part of the US government. That administration has rushed in recent days to emphasize that Pelosi’s visit is her own choice and not a sign of changed US policy towards China.