analysis
Reunion with one-sided anticipation: On Saturday (September 30th, 2023, from 6:30 p.m. live in the radio report and in the live ticker on the Sportschau) there will be the top game in the Bundesliga between RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich. The record champions don’t like to remember past games.
It is extremely rare for Bayern Munich to be underdogs in a league game. But with the record champions’ guest appearance in Leipzig, one could come to this conclusion based on the recent past. Because RB not only won the last two games, but also led Bayern at times – in Munich.
Bayern “still has a lot to make up for”
On the 33rd matchday of last season, Leipzig briefly pushed FCB out of first place with a 3-1 win and put the eleventh championship in a row in enormous danger. Less than three months later, the RB storm swept over the Bayern stars, some of whom were overwhelmed.
Leipzig won again clearly 3-0 in the Supercup game. And the impression became stronger that the Bundesliga leader could have major problems with the RB structure in the long term.
“We still have a lot to make up for in the Supercup, where we didn’t show our face at all” Leon Goretzka looked ahead to the next duel on Saturday in Leipzig. “We have to straighten things out a bit and we will be highly motivated.”
But Bayern not only need motivation, but also top performance. Because Leipzig embodies a lot of things that are extremely difficult for the people of Munich. Sportschau.de shows the reasons for FCB’s big problems with RB.
Reason 1: The Rose Factor
RB coach Marco Rose has shown in the past that with the right team he has the tools to hurt Bayern: in his two years at Borussia Mönchengladbach, the 47-year-old has already won two out of four games. At Borussia Dortmund, the team couldn’t implement their intense style of play to endanger Munich (three defeats in three games), but things are now going even better in Leipzig (undefeated three times).
“We are always ready. When they come, we’ll be there and we know we need a top performance. We showed it twice in Munich, why not at home with our fans?“, said Rose to “Sky” after the 3-2 win in the DFB Cup at SV Wehen Wiesbaden. The original Leipziger has been RB coach for a year and during this time he has achieved the same results as Bayern in 34 league games 73 points.
Leipzig coach Marco Rose
Reason 2: Leipzig courage
In the Bundesliga, the vast majority of games for Munich are about overcoming a dense defense. However, RB takes a completely different approach and also acts extremely courageously against Bayern. The high start-up, direct offensive game with many participants and the courage to go into one-on-one duels obviously bothers them.
In the Supercup, Thomas Tuchel’s team couldn’t get Dani Olmo (out injured in the league) and Xavi Simons at all under control. The 20-year-old will be a big factor again, he is the best assist provider of the season (four assists) and has already scored three goals. Leipzig and Simons want to take advantage of the fact that Bayern still do not see themselves well positioned in the defensive six position.
Reason 3: Squad depth
While Tuchel achieved his desired “Holding Six” didn’t get it, Rose’s every wish was fulfilled. Leipzig managed to compensate for the prominent departures such as Christopher Nkunku (Chelsea FC) and Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City) and filled the squad at least twice with great quality in all positions. Rose can React to all eventualities and position his team according to his concept – and sometimes surprise his counterpart.
Bayern may have the better players at the top, but Leipzig has advantages in depth. This is especially true when Munich is plagued by injury concerns, as is currently the case. Serge Gnabry injured his forearm in the DFB Cup against Preußen Münster (4-0) and, like Matthijs de Ligt (bruise), will be out.
It is also not yet clear whether Thomas Müller and central defenders Minjae Kim and Dayot Upamecano can play. Leon Goretzka could have to help out in the center of defense again. The fact that RB captain Willi Orban is missing was not yet noticeable.
Reason 4: Balance and Callousness
Against the record champions you have to take advantage of the few chances that come your way – and Leipzig is currently doing that like no other team. In the ratio of “expected goals” (probable number of goals given the shots on goal) in relation to the goals actually scored, RB is the undisputed number one in the league.
The Rose team was successful 14 times, but the chances only gave 7.3 “expected goals”. This efficiency was also crucial in the last two games against Bayern.
The basis of this success is that Leipzig understands perfectly how to never neglect its defense despite its courageous and efficient offensive game. RB has always had one of the best defensive lines in recent years – and that continues this season. Janis Blaswich is the only Bundesliga goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet in three of the five games so far. This means that “dirty” victories like the recent one in Mönchengladbach (1-0) are possible.
Bayern weren’t the only team in the Supercup that failed because of the RB style. But on Saturday they could be the first to do this three times in just over four months. That’s what you call the Leipzig trauma.