By Philip Fabian
In less than a month it will be that time again in Russia: the celebrations for “Victory Day” are coming up. But the war in Ukraine puts such a strain on Putin’s army that he has to cancel many parades!
In several regional capitals, the Kremlin has had to take the highly unusual step of canceling celebrations of the Soviet Union’s great victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, the Atlantic Council think tank has learned.
Among them: Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, both of which border Ukraine, and on the Crimean peninsula stolen from Ukraine. Official reason: security concerns. In Moscow, the May 9th celebrations will be held as planned – but Putin is threatened with an embarrassing appearance there too!
According to the US think tank, observers believe that there is more to it than just “security concerns”: the army is running out of tanks and the Kremlin is careful not to disclose it.
In other words, too many parades are mercilessly threatening to reveal that Putin’s war is proceeding very differently from what his propaganda always claims – and that his regime is in a much worse position than the people are being told.
“Victory Day” is perhaps the most important day of the year for many Russians – and that has a lot to do with Putin personally. Over the course of his tenure, he has elevated the celebrations to a quasi-religious celebration designed to bolster Russian pride. The cult of victory over Nazi Germany sets the tone in Russian politics, and opponents of the Putin regime at home and abroad are routinely attacked as “Nazis” and “fascists” – including Ukraine.
Last year, the tanks rolled down Red Square for the Victory Parade – that will not happen everywhere in Russia this year Photo: picture alliance/dpa/TASS
Putin’s devastating record of the past few months: the major Russian offensive that was expected for spring resulted in huge material and human losses and only very small gains in territory. The morale of the troops is at a low point because of the “human wave” tactic, which accepts high casualties: Soldiers are increasingly complaining on social media about their poor food and the catastrophic supply. The bombing campaign on Ukraine’s infrastructure ended earlier this winter – apparently because the ammunition ran out. Meanwhile, Ukraine is again exporting electricity abroad.
And: There are no signs that Western support for Ukraine is waning – on the contrary: In addition to tanks, Ukraine is now also getting fighter jets from Poland, albeit only old MIG-29 planes from GDR stocks.
That is why the Atlantic Council analyses: “It will be all the more difficult for Putin to find the right tone in this year’s Victory Day speech. With little to look forward to, he is likely to draw inspiration from the glories of the past.”
But even comparisons between World War II and Russia’s current predicament will prove unflattering to Putin.
After all, even at the height of the Nazi advance in late 1941, Moscow hosted the famous annual October Revolution parade in Red Square, with the might of the invading German army just a few miles away.
By comparison, Russia today: “Putin is now clearly unable to defend Russia against the far more modest threat posed by a country he intended to conquer in just three days.”
The Atlantic Council concludes: “Throughout the Putin era, Victory Day has served to demonstrate Russia’s newfound strength. But this year’s holiday could become a symbol of his regime’s growing weakness.”