By Christopher Buhl
In peacetime it would have been a mere routine operation. In times of war, the big shivering starts in the middle of summer: will Kremlin tyrant Vladimir Putin (69) turn off the gas tap completely from Monday?
As of tomorrow morning, the last most important connection for Russian natural gas to Germany will be shut down. Annual maintenance work on the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 makes this necessary – the operator had announced this a long time ago.
Ten days (until July 21) are scheduled for the maintenance work – but the federal government is now afraid that the repair break could lead to a permanent shutdown of the pipeline.
Is Putin turning off the gas for good?
► Economics Minister Robert Habeck (52, Greens) expects the worst. The Vice-Chancellor expressed acute concerns that Putin could use the work to completely cut off gas production in the direction of Germany. On Deutschlandfunk on Saturday he spoke of a “nightmare scenario”: “Anything is possible, anything can happen. (…) It is possible that more gas will flow again, even more than before. But it can also be the case that nothing arrives at all.”
Habeck continues: “Honestly, we always have to prepare for the worst and work a little for the best.”
In June, Gazprom had already significantly reduced the delivery volume through the more than 1,200-kilometer pipeline from Russia to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – according to the Federal Network Agency, the line is currently only being used at around 40 percent.
The reduced delivery quantity was also explained by the lack of a turbine from Siemens Energy, which could no longer be delivered from Montréal, Canada to Russia after the maintenance was completed due to sanctions.
Canada supplies key turbine with exemption
But the West is now taking this possible excuse for a complete halt to deliveries: Canada has announced that it will allow the serviced turbine to be delivered from Montréal despite the sanctions against Russia.
Canada will give “a temporary and revocable permit” to Siemens Canada, said Minister for Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson on Saturday. The turbine is to be delivered from Canada first to Germany and then to Russia.
According to its own information, Nord Stream AG plans to check and, if necessary, repair or calibrate the power supply, fire and gas protection and certain valves. Software updates would also be made.
The offshore pipelines remained under pressure. Such work would have taken between 10 and 14 days in previous years. However, they also partially deviated from the set deadline.
According to the Federal Network Agency, the work is not taking place directly on the line, but at the compressor stations, for example in Lubmin. In model calculations, the authority assumes up to 14 days, but has already included a time buffer.
Under normal circumstances, however, the work should be able to be completed within the planned period. According to the authority’s models, a permanent shutdown could lead to a gas shortage in Germany in winter.
Russian gas deliveries via other lines to Germany had also recently declined. At the same time, several European countries have already stopped receiving gas from Russia. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Europe’s supply of gas from Russia has been considered endangered.
industry in great concern
In addition to private consumers, German industry is also concerned about the upcoming maintenance. In the energy-hungry chemical and pharmaceutical industries in particular, concerns about a gas shortage are great. According to the Chemical Industry Association (VCI), the sector is the largest German gas consumer with a share of 15 percent.
It needs gas as a source of energy and as a raw material for further processing in products such as plastics, medicines or fertilizers. Gas prices are currently “breathtaking” high, said VCI President Christian Kullmann on Wednesday. In order to remain able to deliver, the industry is stocking up on stocks in order to be able to continue to supply customers in the event of a crisis.
VCI General Manager Wolfgang Große Entrup said: “We are preparing for a throttling or even a cessation of gas imports.” The companies in southern and southeastern Germany would suffer first because of the pipeline system. In the north and west, on the other hand, supply via ports is easier.
For this reason, large companies such as BASF, Merck and ThyssenKrupp have been preparing for an emergency for a long time. A ThyssenKrupp spokesman said there were “very few” opportunities to save gas in production.
A switch from natural gas to oil or coal is also not possible or only possible to a negligible extent. “Restrictions in supply are also associated with restrictions in production, but we can implement them up to a certain threshold.” However, a minimum purchase is essential to maintain production. Otherwise shutdowns and technical damage cannot be ruled out.
