Scenario 1: Russia takes all of Donbas and declares victory.
This scenario offers the Kremlin a way out of a war that has taken an unexpectedly high toll on the once-believed Russian army, in both personnel and equipment. With the capture of the entire Donbas and the eastern strip of land as far as Mariupol and Kherson, Vladimir Putin can sell to the Russians that the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine has been worthwhile and successful.
But for the victory puzzle, an important piece is missing: the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian army still controls about 46 percent of this part of Donbas. After the capture of Lysychansk in Luhansk over the weekend, the Russians are expected to move quickly westwards. Important targets in the Donetsk in the coming weeks: the cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bachmoet.
The big question is how long it will take for the Russians to take control of all of Donetsk. It took the Russian army almost three months to capture the remaining Luhansk that they had not yet in their hands, about seven percent. Military logic shows that it will take much longer before they also defeat the Ukrainian army in a significantly larger area in the Donetsk region.
wear and tear
“A war of wear and tear, one in which we see Russia paying a high price for small bits of gain in territory,” a senior Pentagon official called the bloody war in the Donbas on Friday.
Given the heavy casualties suffered by both sides in the artillery battle, the time factor is not in anyone’s favour. However, Russia hopes it can hold out for longer, bolstered by the army’s greater battle and firepower. Moscow must also hope that the heavy Western weapons that keep pouring into the battlefield will not make a difference. By comparison, the Ukrainians now finally have four advanced US missile systems, but the Russians have a multitude of these weapons.
Putin declared victory in Luhansk on Monday. The troops that had given him the victory had to “rest and strengthen their military strength.” Then they had to set their sights on the Donetsk region. With in a month, perhaps in two months, he is convinced, an important victory here too.
Scenario 2: A war of attrition that no one can decide.
Numerous Western officials, from British ministers to NATO boss Jens Stolterberg, have warned in recent weeks that the war could go on for a very long time. That the battle will end in a battle that goes on and on that neither side can settle in their favor. “The war will drag on for a longer period of time,” US spy chief Avril Haines predicted last week.
The American intelligence services, which correctly predicted the Russian invasion, call this scenario the most likely. Although Russia is slowly and on a small scale making territorial gains, it is unable to force a military breakthrough. Crucial to this scenario is that the Ukrainian military remains afloat and gains strength from the flow of high-tech weapons from the West, especially those from the US.
A proof of how the Ukrainians can more and more resist the Russians with these weapons is the battle for Snake Island. A Russian ship was destroyed with the Harpoon missile, after which the supply of the Russians on the island became a major problem. The missile also limited the operations of the Black Sea fleet. On Monday, the Ukrainian flag flew over the strategically located island after the Russians had left in a hurry.
Repeat success
Washington and Kyiv hope that this symbolic success can be repeated in the Donetsk region in the coming weeks. Among other things with the modern Himars missile system that in a short time with great precision drops a shower of missiles on the Russians. According to the US, the Ukrainians are already using the weapon, which has only been on site for more than a week, with great success.
For example, Russian command posts were attacked with it to disrupt the command of the Russians. “The Ukrainians are systematically selecting targets and then hitting them accurately in order to reduce Russian capabilities,” said a senior US military official.
The US, which has already supplied $6.9 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine, is now also going to provide an air defense system to neutralize the threat posed by Russian cruise missiles. At best, Western support keeps the Ukrainian military going and leaves Russia frustrated in the Donetsk. Negotiations to settle the battle have then come a significant step closer.
Scenario 3: Russia wins/Ukraine wins.
US intelligence agencies warned last week that Putin is still after his primary war target. “We think he still has the same political goals, which is to take most of Ukraine,” said Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence. So also the capital Kyiv.
Only, she immediately added: the Russian army has been so badly hit militarily that Putin can no longer achieve his goal. “There is a mismatch between his ambitions and what the military can achieve,” Haines said. Putin could be tempted to push through to Kyiv after all. But then the Ukrainian army in the Donbas, estimated at 40 to 50 thousand before the invasion, would have collapsed and had been defeated. The chance of this is small.
Conversely, a Ukrainian victory, in which all the occupied territory is recaptured, is also impossible. After the humiliating Russian retreat from Kyiv, the Ukrainian government still dared to believe that this scenario was feasible. However, the optimism was short-lived.
Kyiv calculated last month that it would need as many as 4,800 heavy Western weapons in the short term, from howitzers to weaponized drones, to be on par with the Russian military. The nearly 50 countries now supporting Ukraine have so far supplied only a fraction of this. Kyiv cannot defeat the Russians militarily, given Russia’s enormous superiority. But making Moscow suffer militarily is a possibility.