News item | 5/30/2023 | 4:00 pm
The terrorist threat to the Netherlands has increased in the past six months. There are increasing signs that jihadist organizations are preparing to carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. These groups explicitly mention the Netherlands as a target. A terrorist attack from right-wing extremists also remains conceivable. Finally, loners or small groups, who have turned against the government out of conspiracy thinking, could resort to an act of violence. This is evident from the most recent Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN 58) of the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV). The threat level is set at level 3. This means that an attack in the Netherlands is conceivable.
Jihadism
Last year, the threat of attacks from ISIS towards Europe increased. Especially from the second half of 2022, there are increasing indications that ISIS is planning attacks in Europe. The threat mainly comes from networks controlled by ISIS structures in Syria and Afghanistan and connected ISIS networks in Turkey. Global jihadist organizations have long regarded the Netherlands as a legitimate target for an attack. However, as a result of recent Koran destruction in our country, the Netherlands has come into the picture even more emphatically. Various pro-ISIS channels have called for retaliatory actions against Western countries via social media, including explicitly Sweden and to a lesser extent the Netherlands. Dutch interests abroad in particular run the risk of being hit by an attack.
The image of the Dutch jihadist movement has remained unchanged for several years; size stagnates. In several larger cities in the Netherlands there are a number of smaller or larger networks that adhere to the jihadist ideology. There are contacts and an exchange of ideas between the networks. The movement is ideologically fragmented and socially fragmented, which prevents it from operating effectively and increasing its influence. The defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq has also caused the movement to lose an important narrative, making it difficult to commit members or attract new members. It is estimated that about five hundred men and women adhere to this philosophy in the Netherlands. Although there has been some turnover within the movement in recent years, it is not expected to increase in number and strength in the short term.
Right-wing extremism
The right-wing extremist threat, including right-wing terrorism, has become more diffuse and unpredictable in recent years. This applies to the Netherlands as well as to other Western countries. A minority of right-wing extremists pose a violent threat. Another part is actively working on normalizing their intolerant ideas and normalizing right-wing extremist ideas in the social and political domain.
Within the Netherlands, the main right-wing extremist threat of violence comes from online adherents of accelerationist and similar right-wing terrorist ideas. Accelerationism is based on the population theory. There are probably a few hundred Dutch-speaking supporters of these ideas. This number does not seem to have increased in the past year. There are concerns about a further normalization of right-wing extremist ideas in the social and political domain.
In the past six months, it has become increasingly common to propagate right-wing extremist ideas. The open and (almost) uncritical discussion of xenophobic and partly racist ideas is visible on social media, but also in political discourse, public broadcasting and daily life. The projected texts on the Erasmus Bridge during the turn of the year are illustrative of the aim to normalize the right-wing extremist movement.
Anti-institutional extremism
The threat posed by anti-institutional extremism in the Netherlands is twofold. In the short term there is a limited threat of violence, in the longer term anti-institutional extremism can undermine the democratic legal order. Some conspiracy theorists feed distrust in government through the narrative of an evil elite. Because of their sometimes very intimidating attitude towards politicians, they can feel seriously hampered in the performance of their democratic task. Sovereigns are part of the wider anti-institutional milieu. They deny the legal and democratic legitimacy of the government on the basis of conspiracy theories. Anti-institutional extremism primarily poses a threat to the democratic legal order. In addition, there may be a threat of violence.